Welcome Message...
Presented by Richard Locke
8:30 AM- Policy Innovation
Chair: Ben Ross Schneider, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Co-Director, MIT-Brazil Program
Panelists:
Rigorous Testing of Policy Innovation: Lessons for Brazil
Rachel Glennerster, Executive Director, Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), MIT
Website: http://www.povertyactionlab.org/
Summary- Fighting Poverty with Scientific Evidence:
J-PAL: A Network of Research Centers which conduct of evaluations in 46 countries run by 52 academics.
In Latin America, 72 Evaluations in 11 countries. But the first question to ask is why do we do what we do?
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The New Brazilian Social Policies
Marcelo Neri, Chief Economist, Center for Social Policies, Fundacao Getulio Vargas
Website: http://fgv.br/cps/nmc/
Summary: New Social Policies in Brazil
Brazil vs. BRICs;
Emphasize not only GDP Growth, but also:
China- 8.5%/15%
South Africa- 5.8%/7.6%
Mean Income vs. GDP:
PNAD has been higher than GDP in the past few years.
Is it Sustainable?
The synthetic household indicator of consumption increased by 22.6% between 2003 and 2009, while the index of income generation (based on productive assets) raised 31.2%. Difference of 38% in favor of the production side. The most prevalent sign of this is 'formal' employment with some form of job security.
In 1970, Brazilian women had on average 6.7 kids. Currently the have 1.9 children. This along with economic prosperity allows for the household to experience a greater quality of life. However some regions are still experiencing high poverty levels. The Northeastern, rural areas have experienced slower economic growth. For example:
Higher Income Increases on Excluded Groups:
Northeast (42% x 16% SE)
Rural Areas (49% x 16% Metro)
Favelas (41.6%)
Sources of Income Growth 2009
Jobs Income: 76%
Private Income (Other): 2%
Bolsa Familia: 2%
Social Security(MW*): 5%
Social Security (>MW): 15%
Poverty fell 16% in only 12 months in 2009. The Lula Administration has reduced poverty by 64% since 1994 when the economy was stabilized.
Social Policy: MVPs
Sergio Rezende, former Minister of Science and Technology, Brazil; Professor of Physics, Federal University of Pernambuco
Website: http://www.mct.gov.br/
Rezende:
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10:00 AM- Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Dara Entekhabi, Bacardi and Stockholm Water Foundations Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Director, Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering; Director, Earth System Initiative, MIT
Panelists:
Entekhabi: In the Amazon Forest, potential consequences demand serious attention. Need for research that reduces uncertainty and enables the formulation of science-based strategies for an environmentally sustainable future.
Regional Context-1:
Amazon ecosystem in the global system:
Historical Climate Variability in the Amazon and South American Regions
Antonio Moura, Director National Meteorology Institute, Brazil
Summary:
Rainfall Monitoring in the Amazon: A Challenge for Climate and Climate Change Research and a Need for Adaptation Strategies Policy-Making
Total Annual Precipitation: Almost everyday it rains in the Amazon Forest so we are dealing with a very wet environment.
IPCC AR4 Report
Temperature Projections
Need 'downscaling' for applications and adaptation strategies
(Note: Mostly Photos Shown to Provide Argument Points, not alot of information I can provide here. We are prohibited from taking too many photos and there are too many slides)
Conventional Stations Involved:
1910: 1---> 2010: 104 (Amazon)
1910: 25---> 2010: 695 (Rest of Brazil)
The lack of Conventional Stations in order to monitor the Amazon Rainforest led to the adoption of Automatic Stations in order to ensure stations would be operational. Real time communication achieved through the use of a cell phone.
Automatic Stations Involved:
2000: 1---> 2010: 94 (Amazon)
2000: 4---> 2010: 371 (Rest of Brazil)
Historical Climate Data is currently being digitized and being made available to the Public in order to make sure a memory of Brazil's climate in the case it proves relevant to solve current and future problems.
This Data Bank is a little difficult to do simply because the records are so old that they present a number of challenges in themselves:
The Data collected by INMET is available to the Public on the following website: www.inmet.gov.br
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In 2010, the world saw a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season. I started wondering if there was some type of connection between hurricane seasons and droughts in Brazil. Records show that 1926 was one of the strongest hurricane seasons on record (second only to 1950 which was also a historial drought year). Records have shown a correlation exists between Annual Hurricane Days and Manaus Low Water Marks.
Climate forcing and climate projections for the Amazon Region and the Globe
Ronald Prinn, TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT; Director, Center for Global Change Science; Co-Director, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, MIT
Email: rprinn@mit.edu (for citation permission)
Website: http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Coming out of the last Ice Age, we did see an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. However, this change didn't became very significant until the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s. Methane is another substance which saw increased presence in the atmosphere after the Ice Age. Nitrous Oxide also known as 'laughing gas' has also experienced an increased prescence in the atmosphere.
What are the major human & Natural Activities Forcing Climate Changes?
Global Land-Ocean Temperature Change (Base Period: 1961-1990) show extended warming, despite a few cooling times appearing on the charts, and shows that the temperature anomaly has increased from -0.2(in 1880) to 0.6 (in 2010) Celsius. The three warmest years recorded with thermometers in the Last 150 years were 1998, 2005, and 2010.
2 common ways to express policy goals for climate mitigation:
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12:00 PM- Progress in Education Policy in the 2000s
Fernando Haddad, Minister of Education, Brazil
CANCELLED!
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1:30 PM- Amazon Ecosystem and Environmental Response
Chair: Dara Entekhabi,
Panelists:
Are we ready for REDD? Multidimensional policies for reducing Amazon deforestation: 2001-2010
Gilberto Camara, Director National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Summary:
Deforestation is responsible for 20% of Global GHG Emissions. Can we base global policies on this statement. In the 80s and 90s there was some debate as to the extent of land change emissions. Was the percentage in the 30s or 20s in terms of percent of total emissions. In 2010, it has been discovered to be <10% of total emissions. This is largely in part by countries taking it upon themselves to decrease land change emissions. Brazil closely monitors its rainforest through INPE Monitoring Systems which give 15-day warnings of newly deforested large areas. This system has made Brazil a country to be envied.
Globo (The Main Television Network of Brazil) has given a hand to outreach in creating a website showing deforestation activities, promotes protest, etc.
This has led to thousands of arrests however an interesting fact arose from these arrests, 50% of deforestation in only 2% of the area.
This move has cut many ethanol and sugar cane producers from potential farmland. Therefore, they started using already deforested land in order to raise cattle (since Brazil is one of the largest exporters of Beef in the World). In order to combat this move, retailers imposed a 'Soy Moratorium in the Amazon Biome'. Retailers would not pay for beef that was raised on Amazon property.
So, let us look at REDD. REDD is very cheap. But it may be just a bunch of Hot Air to distract us from the matter at hand. However, the only place asking for a reduction of emissions is the EU. If Brazil was able to reduce deforestation from 2005 to 2020 would be 2/3 of the total proposed cuts of emissions by the EU.
Role of Vegetation in shaping regional climate over the Amazon Basin
Elfatih Eltahir, Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT
Summary:
During the 1970s and 80s, major deforestation was occurring in Brazil. Even though it has been drastically curbed, it still leaves its mark on the environment.
Degradation of Vegetation:
The Changing Amazon: Recent Results from the LBA Experiment
Paulo Artaxo, Professor, Environmental Physics, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
Opportunities for Research on Environmental Issues
Summary:
(Note: This presentation included many slides with Scientific Data I did not have time to write down, photos are limited so apologies. Notes may also appear scattered because of only a select few slides translatable to text without including alot of Jargon.).
Some key issues that are important from the scientific, public policies and conservation in Amazonia:
Predicting the fate of the Amazonian Ecosystems over the coming Century
Paul Moorcroft, Professor, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University
Summary:
Predicted changes in Amazon's rainfall levels due to increases in CO2 emissions. Current predictions are based on coarse-resolution atmospheric model (GCM) simulations that do not resolve many important factors in predicting rainfall patterns.
Land cover change is happening at small scales alongside increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Current terrestrial biosphere model formulations are interesting but essentially untested hypothesis for the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. They have not rigorously evaluated against observed metrics of ecosystem composition.
Andes Amazon Initiative (AAI) Research Consortium
Objective: Predict how land use change and climate change will affect the composition, structure, and functioning of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century.
Approach: A comprehensive evaluation and further development of the predictive capabilities of 4 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models against a suite of field measurements collected over a range of situations.
The Ecosystem Demography Model Version 2:
AAI Phase I: Evaluate and Test 4 Terrestrial Biosphere models using measurements from 14 sites across the Amazon basin. Short term ecosystem dynamics: Fluxes of carbon, water, energy over seasonal inter-annual timescales.
AAI Phase II: regional Ecosystem Model Simulations
AAI Phase III: Coupled Biosphere- Atmosphere Simulations
Precipitation change is caused by changes in the pattern of the vertical atmosphere.
Summary of Key Scientific Questions being addressed by AAI:
Is there a deforestation threshold?
How is the deforestation response affected by increasing levels of carbon dioxide?
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Going Global: What MNCs from Brazil and the U.S. can Teach Each Other
Chairs: Lawrence K. Fish, member, MIT Corporation; former Chairman and CEO, Citizens Financial Group
Suzanne Berger, Raphael Dorman and Helen Starbuck Professor of Political Science; Director, MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives
Fish: A two way exchange is now occurring in Brazil in exchange for the original one way communication that occurred between the United States and Brazil.
Berger: It is an opportunity to learn from a group of people the ability to operate globally. It is something that we are trying to master ourselves and trying to translate to our students.
Panelists:
Santander Group: A Global Model for a Dual World
Edvaldo Morata, Chief of Staff and Head of Corporate Banking, Sovereign Bank
Summary:
A global model in a dual world: Emerging and mature nations.
Leveraging global resources and relationships.
Santander: A successful franchise
Emerging and Mature Nations: One Model, Different Strategies
Embraer going Global
Mauro Kern Junior, Executive Vice President, New Programs, Airline Market, Embraer
Summary:
1950: ITA was created. Aeronautics Technological Institute (ITA)
1954: IPD was formed. Institute for Development and Research
Bandeirante makes its first flight...Sao Jose dos Campos (1968)
Embraer: Sao Jose dos Campos (1969)
It became the integration of two different cultures. Technological & Industrial Culture and the Entrepreneurial Culture. However, in the 1980s, Brazil and the Aeronautic Industry faced severe difficulties due to hyper-inflation and chaos in Latin America. Therefore, in 1994, it was seen as the only solution to privatize Embraer.
Aerospace Industry Fundamentals
Driving Innovation in Latin America
Eduardo W. Wanick, President & CEO, DuPont Latin America
Summary:
Innovation is a Key Driver for....
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It's a diverse world out there...but being yourself pays off
Luciano Siani, Vale, Director of Strategy and Human Resources
Summary:
Vale has expanded into 38 countries through acquisitions, Greenfield projects and sales & marketing.
Acquisitions: North American Mining...on the path of decline....or a new revival?
Before...
Itau Unibanco: The Path to Become a Global Player
Richard Marino, VP Latin American Operations, Itau Unibanco
Summary:
In recent years, Latin America has been more integrated to the global economy and has shown higher GDP growth rate than World's average. Latin America is growing faster than the World average. In this scenario, in this world of opportunity and crisis, it was a very harsh environment for many Brazilian Banks let alone International Banks. Before the Financial Crisis, Itau wasn't even on the Top 20 International Banks. Now it is #10. One of the largest banks by market cap, with the highest profitability and capitalization ratios among this group.
Itau Unibanco's Case:
Initial Drive for expansion was a response to our customer's needs...
Brazilian Multinational
Presented by Richard Locke
8:30 AM- Policy Innovation
Chair: Ben Ross Schneider, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Co-Director, MIT-Brazil Program
Panelists:
Rigorous Testing of Policy Innovation: Lessons for Brazil
Rachel Glennerster, Executive Director, Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), MIT
Website: http://www.povertyactionlab.org/
Summary- Fighting Poverty with Scientific Evidence:
J-PAL: A Network of Research Centers which conduct of evaluations in 46 countries run by 52 academics.
In Latin America, 72 Evaluations in 11 countries. But the first question to ask is why do we do what we do?
- We have little hard evidence on key questions:
- What is the impact of micro-finance?
- What is most cost effective way to promote safer sexual behavior?
- Better evidence is essential for maximizing impact of limited resources
- Better evidence on impact & resources based on evidence can help building support for more poverty programs
- Standard ways of measuring impact:
- Changes over time
- How do beneficiaries compare to non beneficiaries
- But this does not distinguish impact of program from other factors
- Children learn over time (with or without a program)
- First to sign up for a program are not typical (e.g. microfinance)
- Randomized evaluation ensures beneficiaries are so different....
Evaluation of corruption audits in Brazil
- In 2003, the government of Brazil started an anti-corruption program based on random audits of municipal government's expenditures.
- No significant difference for just having an audit
- Those where 2 or more violations were found were 7 percentage points less likely to be elected
- Municipalities with local radio stations saw bigger effects
- 2010, Chilean Ministry of Planning asked J-PAL to convene a commission of local and international academics to:
- Identify the main social policy challenges to Chile.
- Propose innovative programs that would then be implemented....
4 Proposals of the Commission:
1.) Increasing information and school choice for poor families
2.) Support & Incentives to teachers
3.) Programs for Rehabilitation and Social Integration
4.) Opportunities for the Youth through a Multi-Dimensional Program
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The New Brazilian Social Policies
Marcelo Neri, Chief Economist, Center for Social Policies, Fundacao Getulio Vargas
Website: http://fgv.br/cps/nmc/
Summary: New Social Policies in Brazil
Brazil vs. BRICs;
Emphasize not only GDP Growth, but also:
- Stocks of Wealth
- Household Flows
- Distribution of Resources
- Subjective Measure of Well-Being
Income Distribution Dynamics (Bottom 20%/ Top 20%)
Brazil - 6.3%/1.7%
India- 1%/2.8%China- 8.5%/15%
South Africa- 5.8%/7.6%
Mean Income vs. GDP:
PNAD has been higher than GDP in the past few years.
Is it Sustainable?
The synthetic household indicator of consumption increased by 22.6% between 2003 and 2009, while the index of income generation (based on productive assets) raised 31.2%. Difference of 38% in favor of the production side. The most prevalent sign of this is 'formal' employment with some form of job security.
In 1970, Brazilian women had on average 6.7 kids. Currently the have 1.9 children. This along with economic prosperity allows for the household to experience a greater quality of life. However some regions are still experiencing high poverty levels. The Northeastern, rural areas have experienced slower economic growth. For example:
Higher Income Increases on Excluded Groups:
Northeast (42% x 16% SE)
Rural Areas (49% x 16% Metro)
Favelas (41.6%)
Sources of Income Growth 2009
Jobs Income: 76%
Private Income (Other): 2%
Bolsa Familia: 2%
Social Security(MW*): 5%
Social Security (>MW): 15%
Poverty fell 16% in only 12 months in 2009. The Lula Administration has reduced poverty by 64% since 1994 when the economy was stabilized.
Social Policy: MVPs
- Crediamigo of NE
- CCTs (Bolsa Familia)
- Education Proficiency
- Target to Erradicate Extreme Poverty by 2014
- Secondary School Initiatives
Bolsa Familia 2.0- New Challenges
- Pre-Schooling (0-6), School Quality (7-15), 2nd Bolsa-Escola (16-17)--> Opportunities Generation
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Science in Brazil: Never Too Late
Sergio Rezende, former Minister of Science and Technology, Brazil; Professor of Physics, Federal University of Pernambuco
Website: http://www.mct.gov.br/
Rezende:
- Historical Remarks on S&T in Brazil
- Recent Advances in S&T
- Opportunities for Scientific Cooperation
- Very few scientists. Mostly in centers for research in health and agriculture.
- No full-time faculty positions or graduate programs.
- Few engineers in areas other than civil (for construction), mechanical (industry), and chemical (for sugar industry)
1951- CNPq- Conselho Nacional de Pesquisas (National Research Council) and CAPES (Commission for Personnel Improvement) created with the mission of providing fellowships to students and grants to individual researchers
1958- Sao Paulo State Science Foundation - FAPESP begins operation
1963- BNDE establishes FUNTEC, a fund to support institutional graduate programs
1967- Federal agency FINEP created to support developement in S&T. New fund, _FNDCT_ for grants to academic institutions and loans to companies
1969- Full-time positions for Science Faculty
Main reasons why S&T has not been decisive for the development of Brazil:
- Scientific Community Relativity small and little experienced until the 1980s
- Lack of R&D and innovation culture in industry
- Lack of continuity in S&T policies and funding
- No cross talk between industrial and S&T
Cases of success in areas of consistent federal policies
1.) Petrobras: World Leader in Deep Sea Drilling for Oil & Gas Production
2.) Embraer
3.) Embrapa: World Leader in Tropical Agribusiness R&D; Develops Agribusiness for Brazil
Brazilian agricultural production propelled by S&T: Brazilian scientific papers in trans-disciplinary studies.
Recent Advances in S&T:
- Expansion and Consolidation of the S, T, & I System
- Large increase in the number of fellowships
- Calls for grant proposals for small groups and young researchers
- Support Program for Centers of Excellence -PRONEX
- INCT- National Insitutes of Science & Technology
- Proinfra- Support Program for Infrastructure
- Support to Technological Innovation in Companies
- Grants for R&D in priority areas of the industrial policy (FINEP)
- Low interest loans for innovation (FINEP & BNDES)
- Incentives to new venture capital funds (FINEP & BNDES)
- Shareholding in innovative companies (BNDES)
- Tax-break Incentives for R&D
- National Program of incubators and technology parks
- Support for R&D by research institutions- SIBRATEC Sistema Brasileiro de Technologia
- R, D, & I in Strategic Areas
- Large Increase in Federal Budgets for S&T
- 2000: R$1.070 Million----> 2010: R$10.5 Million
- Investments in R&D: Progress has been shown, but not as dramatic as funding
- Remarkable Progress
- Graduate Degrees
- 1987: 5,000 Masters & PhDs awarded
- 2009: 50,000 Masters & PhDs awarded
- Venture Capital's New Hot Spot
- Universities (366)
- Development & Research Centers (77)
- PhD programs evaluated by CAPES;
- 120 programs with highest grades (6,7) on a scale from 1-7:
- Requirement: Must have websites in English |:)|
- Areas of Interest to MIT-Brazil Program
- INPA
- CENPES
- INPE
- CTBE
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| Amazon Rainforest |
10:00 AM- Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Dara Entekhabi, Bacardi and Stockholm Water Foundations Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Director, Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering; Director, Earth System Initiative, MIT
Panelists:
Entekhabi: In the Amazon Forest, potential consequences demand serious attention. Need for research that reduces uncertainty and enables the formulation of science-based strategies for an environmentally sustainable future.
Regional Context-1:
Amazon ecosystem in the global system:
- Average discharge greater than the next 6 largest rivers combined;20% of all global freshwater riverine flow.
- Earth's largest oxygen-replenishing rainforest- so-called 'Lung of the Earth'
- Forests and soil exchanges carbon with the atmosphere; For now the system is a net sink of carbon.
- Brazilian rainforest and its water cycle (precipitation) are coupled in a feedback system.
- Particles as small as 10^-3 mm in diameter serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) to form rain droplets.
- Forest release natural organic compounds that get transformed into Secondary Organic Aerosal (SOA).
'Drought of the Century'~ In 2001, the Amazon rainforest absorbs a deviant less carbon than normal due to the lack of water being poured into the Amazon. In 2010, another drought occurred destroying the rainforest's ability to absorb carbon
Key Questions:
Are droughts driven by global change or natural visibility?
If global greenhouse gas emissions contribute to Amazon drought that in turn lead to this major ecosystem to absorb less (or even release) carbon into the atmosphere, could this result in a global change feedback loop?
How do tropical ecosystems and their climate co-evolve and respond to one-another?
How may the Amazonia ecosystem respond to global change?
Most (80%) IPCC models predict drier Amazon and permanent transition to what is now a drought condition; What are the projections and their uncertainties?
Historical Climate Variability in the Amazon and South American Regions
Antonio Moura, Director National Meteorology Institute, Brazil
Summary:
Rainfall Monitoring in the Amazon: A Challenge for Climate and Climate Change Research and a Need for Adaptation Strategies Policy-Making
Total Annual Precipitation: Almost everyday it rains in the Amazon Forest so we are dealing with a very wet environment.
IPCC AR4 Report
Temperature Projections
Need 'downscaling' for applications and adaptation strategies
(Note: Mostly Photos Shown to Provide Argument Points, not alot of information I can provide here. We are prohibited from taking too many photos and there are too many slides)
Conventional Stations Involved:
1910: 1---> 2010: 104 (Amazon)
1910: 25---> 2010: 695 (Rest of Brazil)
The lack of Conventional Stations in order to monitor the Amazon Rainforest led to the adoption of Automatic Stations in order to ensure stations would be operational. Real time communication achieved through the use of a cell phone.
Automatic Stations Involved:
2000: 1---> 2010: 94 (Amazon)
2000: 4---> 2010: 371 (Rest of Brazil)
Historical Climate Data is currently being digitized and being made available to the Public in order to make sure a memory of Brazil's climate in the case it proves relevant to solve current and future problems.
This Data Bank is a little difficult to do simply because the records are so old that they present a number of challenges in themselves:
- Fungus
- Fragile Nature of Paper
- Sheer Volume of Documents
- In some areas, e.g. Amazon, lack of proper storage facilities
Conclusion:
- There is an increased demand for scientific guidance for climate variability and climate change adaptation.
- There is a mismatch between scales that modeling science can provide and the smaller scale required for actions policy making.
- Historical Data are needed to be amalgamated with scenario modeling results and proper 'downscaling'
The Data collected by INMET is available to the Public on the following website: www.inmet.gov.br
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Rainfall monitoring in the Amazon region: A Challenge for Climate and Climate Change Research and a Need for Adaptation Strategies policy making.
Earle Williams, Principal Research Engineer, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT
Summary:
The Severe Amazon Drought of 1926
Visit to Manaus, Brazil in November 2010; witness to a recent drought
Giant Raingages in Tropical Continental Zones
--Study of the 1926 Amazon Drought (2005)
The Amazon Basin and Sub-Basin Drained at Manaus: The drought was so great that people were digging diamonds out of the river bank, temperatures were greatly elevated, steam was everywhere making the environment very humid.
The Record of Annual High Water Marks in Manaus Harbor (1903-2010) shows that the drought in 1926 changed the typical water level dropped from 2750 to 10cm or 5 deviations. The temperature also reached 39 Celsius which is over 10 degrees higher than normal. There was also a significant decrease in thunderstorms during this time period as well.
Now lets fast-forward to 2010.
 |
| Photo showing an affected Region of Manaus (2010) |
Conclusions:
1926- Remains the most severe Amazon drought in the record from 1903 to present.
2010 tied a record for the most severe dry season drought.
A characteristic feature of the majority of severe droughts is activity in the Pacific & Atlantic Oceans.
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Climate forcing and climate projections for the Amazon Region and the Globe
Ronald Prinn, TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT; Director, Center for Global Change Science; Co-Director, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, MIT
Email: rprinn@mit.edu (for citation permission)
Website: http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Coming out of the last Ice Age, we did see an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. However, this change didn't became very significant until the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s. Methane is another substance which saw increased presence in the atmosphere after the Ice Age. Nitrous Oxide also known as 'laughing gas' has also experienced an increased prescence in the atmosphere.
What are the major human & Natural Activities Forcing Climate Changes?
Global Land-Ocean Temperature Change (Base Period: 1961-1990) show extended warming, despite a few cooling times appearing on the charts, and shows that the temperature anomaly has increased from -0.2(in 1880) to 0.6 (in 2010) Celsius. The three warmest years recorded with thermometers in the Last 150 years were 1998, 2005, and 2010.
 |
| Carbon Counter in NYC Penn Station to Advertise Greenhouses Gases being released into the atmosphere. |
2 common ways to express policy goals for climate mitigation:
- Aim to keep Global Greenhouse Gases below Specified Levels (for this purpose levels of non-CO2 gases are typically converted to their equivalent levels of CO2 that would have the same effect on climate; we are currently at about 472 ppm CO2 equivalents.
- Aim to maintain policies which help combat increases in Global Greenhouse Gases.
[(delta) T> 2 Celsius| (delta) T > 4 Celsius| (delta) T > 6 Celsius]
No policy @ 1400| [100%| 85%| 25%]
Stabilize @ 900 (L4) [100%| 25%| 0.25%]
''@790 (L3) [97%| 7%| <0.25%]
''@ 660 (L2) [80%| 0.25%| <0.25%]
''@ 550 (L1) [25%|<0.25%|<0.25%]
What are the projected patterns of changes (1990 to 2095) in Temperature (C) and Rainfall (%) for Amazon Region?
Maximum Warming from 1990-2095 of 4-5 Celsius in June-Aug
Rainfall increases from 5-20% in Dec.-Feb. & Decreases 20-40% in June-Aug.
Poles Warm Muh Faster than Tropics; If Ice Sheets Melt, Howe much Sea Level Rise Could Occur?
Therefore, if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet disappeared, the sea level would rise 5 meters. If the Greenland Ice Sheet disappears then the sea level would rise 7 meters. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer (~4 Celsius) than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 6-8 meters of sea level rise.
What would happen if Arctic Tundra & Permafrost thaws? This would induce emission over time of the 1670 billion tons of carbon stored in Arctic Tundra & Frozen soil. This is about 200 times current annual worldwide emission levels.
Typhoons/ Cyclones/ Hurricanes & Oceanic Warming: Increasing destructiveness over the past 30 years.
Therefore, we may need to look at reducing our carbon footprint. We can do this using Biofuels. However, are there issues regarding the conversion of land for renewable energy at large scales? Biofuels require almost 3.4 billion acres of land dedicated to producing ethanol which is about 8.5 times the cropland present in the United States. It also increases competition from needs of food production, disruption of natural ecosystems, etc.
So do we need climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigration? We are already committed to some unavoidable warming even at current Greenhouse gas levels (about 0.6 Celsius). Also, adaptation can also help out in the short run in order to achieve our goals of decreasing our carbon footprint.
However, how can we express the value of a climate policy under uncertainty? What would stabilization at 660 ppm-equivalent of change.
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12:00 PM- Progress in Education Policy in the 2000s
Fernando Haddad, Minister of Education, Brazil
CANCELLED!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1:30 PM- Amazon Ecosystem and Environmental Response
Chair: Dara Entekhabi,
Panelists:
Are we ready for REDD? Multidimensional policies for reducing Amazon deforestation: 2001-2010
Gilberto Camara, Director National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Summary:
Deforestation is responsible for 20% of Global GHG Emissions. Can we base global policies on this statement. In the 80s and 90s there was some debate as to the extent of land change emissions. Was the percentage in the 30s or 20s in terms of percent of total emissions. In 2010, it has been discovered to be <10% of total emissions. This is largely in part by countries taking it upon themselves to decrease land change emissions. Brazil closely monitors its rainforest through INPE Monitoring Systems which give 15-day warnings of newly deforested large areas. This system has made Brazil a country to be envied.
Globo (The Main Television Network of Brazil) has given a hand to outreach in creating a website showing deforestation activities, promotes protest, etc.
This has led to thousands of arrests however an interesting fact arose from these arrests, 50% of deforestation in only 2% of the area.
This move has cut many ethanol and sugar cane producers from potential farmland. Therefore, they started using already deforested land in order to raise cattle (since Brazil is one of the largest exporters of Beef in the World). In order to combat this move, retailers imposed a 'Soy Moratorium in the Amazon Biome'. Retailers would not pay for beef that was raised on Amazon property.
So, let us look at REDD. REDD is very cheap. But it may be just a bunch of Hot Air to distract us from the matter at hand. However, the only place asking for a reduction of emissions is the EU. If Brazil was able to reduce deforestation from 2005 to 2020 would be 2/3 of the total proposed cuts of emissions by the EU.
Role of Vegetation in shaping regional climate over the Amazon Basin
Elfatih Eltahir, Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT
Summary:
During the 1970s and 80s, major deforestation was occurring in Brazil. Even though it has been drastically curbed, it still leaves its mark on the environment.
Degradation of Vegetation:
- Increase surface albedo
- Decrease of net solar radiation at the surface
- Decrease of the total flux of heat (sensible + latent) from the surface into the boundary layer into the soil
- Reduce roughness length
- Reduce Depth of Root Zone
- Reduce Vaporization
- Increase surface temperature
- Decrease concentration of water vapor in the boundary layer
- ...
The Changing Amazon: Recent Results from the LBA Experiment
Paulo Artaxo, Professor, Environmental Physics, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
Opportunities for Research on Environmental Issues
Summary:
(Note: This presentation included many slides with Scientific Data I did not have time to write down, photos are limited so apologies. Notes may also appear scattered because of only a select few slides translatable to text without including alot of Jargon.).
Some key issues that are important from the scientific, public policies and conservation in Amazonia:
- Carbon cycling and the physiological and climatic controls
- Atmospheric Chemistry in Terms of Oxidants & Biosphere-atmosphere interactions
- Aerosol Clouds...
16 LBA Flux Towers to Monitor the Amazonia.
Amazonica project to approach the proper measurement of the carbon effects.
The Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest:
2 plots with rain exclusion (drought experiments) in Amazonia. Intact forests seem resilient to substantial climate changes compared to disturbed forests. Spatial patterns of standardized anomalies of normalized difference vegetation index.
Amazonia- Average Aerosol forcing clear sky
Cloud Physics in Pristine Atmosphere: Relationship between cloud properties and aerosol loading in Amazonia.
Strong aerosol effect on forest photosynthesis diffuse radiation have a large effect on CO2 releases.
A Issue for research in Amazonia
- Establishment of a permanent atmospheric composition monitoring station in Amazonia.
Predicting the fate of the Amazonian Ecosystems over the coming Century
Paul Moorcroft, Professor, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University
Summary:
Predicted changes in Amazon's rainfall levels due to increases in CO2 emissions. Current predictions are based on coarse-resolution atmospheric model (GCM) simulations that do not resolve many important factors in predicting rainfall patterns.
Land cover change is happening at small scales alongside increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Current terrestrial biosphere model formulations are interesting but essentially untested hypothesis for the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. They have not rigorously evaluated against observed metrics of ecosystem composition.
Andes Amazon Initiative (AAI) Research Consortium
Objective: Predict how land use change and climate change will affect the composition, structure, and functioning of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century.
Approach: A comprehensive evaluation and further development of the predictive capabilities of 4 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models against a suite of field measurements collected over a range of situations.
The Ecosystem Demography Model Version 2:
AAI Phase I: Evaluate and Test 4 Terrestrial Biosphere models using measurements from 14 sites across the Amazon basin. Short term ecosystem dynamics: Fluxes of carbon, water, energy over seasonal inter-annual timescales.
AAI Phase II: regional Ecosystem Model Simulations
AAI Phase III: Coupled Biosphere- Atmosphere Simulations
Precipitation change is caused by changes in the pattern of the vertical atmosphere.
Summary of Key Scientific Questions being addressed by AAI:
Is there a deforestation threshold?
How is the deforestation response affected by increasing levels of carbon dioxide?
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Going Global: What MNCs from Brazil and the U.S. can Teach Each Other
Chairs: Lawrence K. Fish, member, MIT Corporation; former Chairman and CEO, Citizens Financial Group
Suzanne Berger, Raphael Dorman and Helen Starbuck Professor of Political Science; Director, MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives
Fish: A two way exchange is now occurring in Brazil in exchange for the original one way communication that occurred between the United States and Brazil.
Berger: It is an opportunity to learn from a group of people the ability to operate globally. It is something that we are trying to master ourselves and trying to translate to our students.
Panelists:
Santander Group: A Global Model for a Dual World
Edvaldo Morata, Chief of Staff and Head of Corporate Banking, Sovereign Bank
Summary:
A global model in a dual world: Emerging and mature nations.
Leveraging global resources and relationships.
Santander: A successful franchise
Emerging and Mature Nations: One Model, Different Strategies
- Emerging:
- Increase exposure to strong local franchises w/ critical mass
- Grow revenues; increase market share
- Capitalize on large and rising middle class
- Mature:
- Take advantage of restructuring processes, gain market share, strengthen market position
- Deleveraging: Low Credit Demand
- 'Organized' Competition
- Cost of funding on the rise
- Delinquency rates remain at relatively high levels
- Regulatory Constraints
- Brazil Franchise vs. US Franchise
- Brazil; 3700 branches; 54,000 employees; $4Billion in profit, 22% of Groups Profits
- US; 721 branches; 8,000 employees
- Total U.S.
- $1.5B in Profit
- Low Risk Model; Always Lowest Risk
- Leveraging Global Relationships:
- Relationships-
- Staples~ US Based Office Supply Store
- Heinz~ US Based Food Company
- Votorantim~ Brazilian Cement Company
- A Successful Business Model:
- Control Costs and Deliver Synergies
- Continue to Manage Asset Margins
- Keep Low Risk Profile
- Global Business Model
- Different Tactics for emerging and developed nations
- Competitive advantages from global diversification
- Deeper business relationships
- Transfer of Knowledge
- Recruitment
Embraer going Global
Mauro Kern Junior, Executive Vice President, New Programs, Airline Market, Embraer
Summary:
1950: ITA was created. Aeronautics Technological Institute (ITA)
1954: IPD was formed. Institute for Development and Research
Bandeirante makes its first flight...Sao Jose dos Campos (1968)
Embraer: Sao Jose dos Campos (1969)
It became the integration of two different cultures. Technological & Industrial Culture and the Entrepreneurial Culture. However, in the 1980s, Brazil and the Aeronautic Industry faced severe difficulties due to hyper-inflation and chaos in Latin America. Therefore, in 1994, it was seen as the only solution to privatize Embraer.
Aerospace Industry Fundamentals
- High Technology
- Qualified People
- Global Presence
- Cash Intensiveness
- Flexibility
Turboprops-----> Commercial Jets
In 2010: 1580 aircraft, 103 airlines from 56 countries! This means they are 4% of fleets and 8% of airlines.
Company Revenue: US $5.35 Billion
Going Global to Develop New Products
- 70s: Xavante--Cooperation with Italians
- 80s: Strengthen Partnerships with Italians
- 90s: ERJ 145 family with International Partners (Risk Sharing Partners)
- 00s: E-Jets family with International Partners
- 2000s: Factory in China
- 2011: Factory in the United States
- 2013: Factory in Portugal
Driving Innovation in Latin America
Eduardo W. Wanick, President & CEO, DuPont Latin America
Summary:
Innovation is a Key Driver for....
- The Competitiveness of a Society
- The Living Standards and Quality of Life of a Society
- The Growth of Companies
90% of patents issued in the US are issued to corporations and not Universities. So we cannot blame the government for this one, this is a business issue.
The Vision of DuPont:
We are a science company, creating sustainable solutions essential to a better, safer, healthier life for people everywhere...
However, our traditional models did not offer much interaction with emerging markets...
EMGI- Market Driven Innovation Process
Applying this process has led to great success for DuPont in Latin America. The Broad Range of Recent Innovation in Latin America stretches from creating a sustainable Chilean Salmon Industry to high nutrition value foods for low income households.
Examples:
Chile: Salmon Farming is unsustainable since it takes about 5 kg of wild fish in order to produce 1 kg of Salmon. Lack of Omega 3 prevents replacement of fish oil by vegetable oil in the feed. Solution is a sustainable source of pure Omega 3 from a plant that produces a sugar.
Brazil: DuPont Armura- Armura protects against 97.6% of all firearms in Brazil.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's a diverse world out there...but being yourself pays off
Luciano Siani, Vale, Director of Strategy and Human Resources
Summary:
Vale has expanded into 38 countries through acquisitions, Greenfield projects and sales & marketing.
Acquisitions: North American Mining...on the path of decline....or a new revival?
Before...
- Independent Practices
- Risk Aversion
- Seniority
- Plan First, do later
- One thing at a time
- Integration and best-practice sharing
- Risk Taking
- Meritocracy
- Do first, adjust later
- All things at the same time
Greenfield...African will change the world of mining forever...and maybe Vale will change African Mining
Treat employees as you would treat your own family.
Mozambique--> Guinea-Bissau---> others in the future
Sales & Marketing...China has changed the Rules of the Game...but so did Vale.
You can have your fair share of the cake and eat it too.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Itau Unibanco: The Path to Become a Global Player
Richard Marino, VP Latin American Operations, Itau Unibanco
Summary:
In recent years, Latin America has been more integrated to the global economy and has shown higher GDP growth rate than World's average. Latin America is growing faster than the World average. In this scenario, in this world of opportunity and crisis, it was a very harsh environment for many Brazilian Banks let alone International Banks. Before the Financial Crisis, Itau wasn't even on the Top 20 International Banks. Now it is #10. One of the largest banks by market cap, with the highest profitability and capitalization ratios among this group.
Itau Unibanco's Case:
Initial Drive for expansion was a response to our customer's needs...
Brazilian Multinational
- Brazilian Corporations began operating abroad
- Demanded financing for their expansion
- Itau strategically placed offices in US, Europe, and Asia
- Home to Japanese Clients outside of Japan
- Are we ready to go global?
- Where is the right place to go?
- Do we have what it takes to compete in a world class environment?
- Do we have the right leadership?
1.) Meet International Clients Demand (68%)
2.) Create new markets due to domestic market saturation (64%)
3.) Meet Need for Hard Currency Revenues....
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Q&A:
Question: What are you doing in order to ensure innovation occurs in your companies? If you cannot answer this one then are you interested in possible innovation with MIT teams?
Answers:
Itau~
Trying to develop a Corporate University in order to train Itau employees. We need content or innovation and contact...MIT Sloan is surely one of these partners...Technology helps
[Richard Locke--Money directed to sustainability projects with the SLab in parntership with Local Brazilian financial institutions
Partners on the Long Term]
Vale:
Deputy Dean of the Universidade
Sustainable Energy and Sustainable Mining
Establish Partnerships with Universities in relationship to research around the world
Embraer
Re-evaluating boldness and innovation; we are not very good with formalizing things and analyzing several cases that are interesting to industry
very good selection process of good ideas
in terms of working together with MIT team yes we have been working together with the MIT Teams here in order to foster the relationship between industry and technology in the end
------End of The Conference---------
Q&A:
Question: What are you doing in order to ensure innovation occurs in your companies? If you cannot answer this one then are you interested in possible innovation with MIT teams?
Answers:
Itau~
Trying to develop a Corporate University in order to train Itau employees. We need content or innovation and contact...MIT Sloan is surely one of these partners...Technology helps
[Richard Locke--Money directed to sustainability projects with the SLab in parntership with Local Brazilian financial institutions
Partners on the Long Term]
Vale:
Deputy Dean of the Universidade
Sustainable Energy and Sustainable Mining
Establish Partnerships with Universities in relationship to research around the world
Embraer
Re-evaluating boldness and innovation; we are not very good with formalizing things and analyzing several cases that are interesting to industry
very good selection process of good ideas
in terms of working together with MIT team yes we have been working together with the MIT Teams here in order to foster the relationship between industry and technology in the end
------End of The Conference---------
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