Thursday, July 14, 2011
Kixibu
Ok, I promise I will post something today. It has just been this program has been keeping me on my toes. If you really want to see some stuff from the program, look here: kixibu.wordpress.com
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Remarks on the 1st Annual MIT-Brazil Forum 2011- Day 01
After spending almost 4 days travelling to and from MIT Brazil's 1st MIT-Brazil Forum without access to a decent WiFi signal on a crowded Greyhound Bus across the country, I have to say the Forum was well worth the trip. In case you are only reading this blog post and have not viewed the previous ones posted on this past week here is a little introduction to the MIT-Brazil Forum.
MIT Brazil is a program that started a little over two years ago at MIT in order to foster a stronger relationship with a country with the 5th Largest Economy in the World. This relationship would encourage the exchange of information, resources, and yes even students (myself included) in order to encourage growth and innovation in approaches towards tackling research, business, entrepreneurship, social policies, etc. The MIT Brazil program is in charge of many programs and initiatives in order to meet this goal:
MIT Brazil is a program that started a little over two years ago at MIT in order to foster a stronger relationship with a country with the 5th Largest Economy in the World. This relationship would encourage the exchange of information, resources, and yes even students (myself included) in order to encourage growth and innovation in approaches towards tackling research, business, entrepreneurship, social policies, etc. The MIT Brazil program is in charge of many programs and initiatives in order to meet this goal:
- MISTI Brazil: A program which allows MIT students to spend a period of time in Brazil in order to engage in Research, a Business Internship, or a Public Service Project.
- MIT Seed Funds: Funds in order to encourage collaboration between MIT and Brazilian Institutions.
- Hosting Program: Host Brazilian Students at MIT in order to encourage collaborations between students.
I have to say that the conference/forum was almost perfect. The following highlights for me at the Forum are as follows:
- Clean Energy & Economic Growth: Rating 4/5 ****
-Ernest Moniz, Cecil & Ida Green Distinguished Professor of Physics, Director of MIT Energy Initiative
-Persio Arida, former Central Bank Governor, Brazil; Chairman of Asset Management; Board Member of BTG Pactual - Comments: Both lecturers gave presentations that provided a great introduction to the importance of Clean Energy to Brazil's future economic growth. However, the stand-out star in this section is Arida. I have taken a course describing the Clean Energy situation in Brazil. Arida summarized a semester of information in a 20 minute presentation. As you can tell from my notes, the information provided wasn't filler like you experience in some presentations but facts and information that can be useful just to know. The amount of jargon in these presentations was limited as well (a huge relief when you are trying to type notes which can make sense to someone without background. Most interesting fact that stood out to me was the fact that over 50% of Brazil's energy comes from Renewable sources. A goal that we in the United States can only dream about. However, it shows that it is possible to achieve such a goal and perhaps Brazil can teach us a thing or two about decreasing dependence on foreign oil. Brazil has changed from being one of the largest importers of oil into the 17th largest producer of oil (behind its sister country Angola). :)
- Biofuels: Rating 4/5 ****
Jose Goldemberg, former Minister of Education, Brazil
Biofuels in Brazil: Past, Present, & Future Perspectives
George Stephanopoulos, Willard Henry Dow Professor of Biotechnology & Chemical Engineering, MIT - Comments: For someone with very limited knowledge of biofuels and energy (except how they relate to physics properties) , the information provided in these presentations were great as well. Especially by showing the truth behind the headlines with biofuels and how effectives ethanol from sugarcane is in comparison to corn and soybeans. Several fact tidbits stuck in my brain which is what I like to get when I go to a conference or lecture. Especially the facts concerning the amount of farmland needed to be allocated towards production of ethanol (for example in order to produce enough corn ethanol for the US, we would need 4 times the arable land we currently possess). However, my only complaint was how the presentations sort of meshed together in my memory. I believe because they were on the same topic, the presentations naturally combined together. This could be a pro or con. I prefer distinct presentations because it is easier for me to remember and dissect them if I can keep them in parts.
- Being an Entrepreneur in Brazil: Opportunities and Challenges: Rating 6/5 ******
Richard Locke, Head of Political Science Department, Co-Director MIT- Brazil Program
Leila Velez, Founder and CEO, Instituto Beleza Natural
Gustavo Caetano, Founder and CEO, SambaTech
Mario Chady, Founder and CEO, Spoleto - Comments: The Highlight of Day 01! I was practically skipping when I left the conference (actually I broke out in song while waiting for the Subway). Becoming a successful entrepreneur in Brazil without coming from a significant cash cow is a rarity in itself. The difficult environment in Brazil for entrepreneurs does not end with the difficulty in obtaining a license but the culture which does not accept failure. It is a known fact that entrepreneurs are more successful their second or third time than their first. It is also true the second or third attempt is usually when success if found (e.g. Spoleto). Therefore, it is rare to hear 3 successful stories from young entrepreneurs ranging from food & service industry, beauty, and technology. All the stories provided useful points for people (like me) who are interested in working in Brazil.
- Presenters were awesome! Case in point! :)
- A nice sidenote, on Beleza Natural, many people in the audience did not connect to her company's purpose because they do not understand her audience. As a woman with very, very kinky hair (even according to Brazilian standards). A product that allows me to have more defined curls is a goal that many African-American women have been pursuing for years through relaxers, texturizer, and tons of hair products. Despite the current 'Back to Black' movement in which African American women are trying to manage the natural hair without chemically altering it, I feel in a little bit of time that a market will re-emerge for this type of product and she could make a killing in the US. Exposure in the US will give her brand validity to a target audience in Europe and the future goldmine of Africa. African American Hair is a multi-billion dollar business alone. People spend thousands of dollars on fake hair and products to have their hair look like the hair offered by Beleza Natural. If the company continues to focus on low-income women and expands their practices, they could be very successful here. :)
Friday, April 15, 2011
MIT-Brazil Forum/Conferência Brasil-MIT - April 15, 2011
Welcome Message...
Presented by Richard Locke
8:30 AM- Policy Innovation
Chair: Ben Ross Schneider, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Co-Director, MIT-Brazil Program
Panelists:
Rigorous Testing of Policy Innovation: Lessons for Brazil
Rachel Glennerster, Executive Director, Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), MIT
Website: http://www.povertyactionlab.org/
Summary- Fighting Poverty with Scientific Evidence:
J-PAL: A Network of Research Centers which conduct of evaluations in 46 countries run by 52 academics.
In Latin America, 72 Evaluations in 11 countries. But the first question to ask is why do we do what we do?
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The New Brazilian Social Policies
Marcelo Neri, Chief Economist, Center for Social Policies, Fundacao Getulio Vargas
Website: http://fgv.br/cps/nmc/
Summary: New Social Policies in Brazil
Brazil vs. BRICs;
Emphasize not only GDP Growth, but also:
China- 8.5%/15%
South Africa- 5.8%/7.6%
Mean Income vs. GDP:
PNAD has been higher than GDP in the past few years.
Is it Sustainable?
The synthetic household indicator of consumption increased by 22.6% between 2003 and 2009, while the index of income generation (based on productive assets) raised 31.2%. Difference of 38% in favor of the production side. The most prevalent sign of this is 'formal' employment with some form of job security.
In 1970, Brazilian women had on average 6.7 kids. Currently the have 1.9 children. This along with economic prosperity allows for the household to experience a greater quality of life. However some regions are still experiencing high poverty levels. The Northeastern, rural areas have experienced slower economic growth. For example:
Higher Income Increases on Excluded Groups:
Northeast (42% x 16% SE)
Rural Areas (49% x 16% Metro)
Favelas (41.6%)
Sources of Income Growth 2009
Jobs Income: 76%
Private Income (Other): 2%
Bolsa Familia: 2%
Social Security(MW*): 5%
Social Security (>MW): 15%
Poverty fell 16% in only 12 months in 2009. The Lula Administration has reduced poverty by 64% since 1994 when the economy was stabilized.
Social Policy: MVPs
Sergio Rezende, former Minister of Science and Technology, Brazil; Professor of Physics, Federal University of Pernambuco
Website: http://www.mct.gov.br/
Rezende:
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10:00 AM- Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Dara Entekhabi, Bacardi and Stockholm Water Foundations Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Director, Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering; Director, Earth System Initiative, MIT
Panelists:
Entekhabi: In the Amazon Forest, potential consequences demand serious attention. Need for research that reduces uncertainty and enables the formulation of science-based strategies for an environmentally sustainable future.
Regional Context-1:
Amazon ecosystem in the global system:
Historical Climate Variability in the Amazon and South American Regions
Antonio Moura, Director National Meteorology Institute, Brazil
Summary:
Rainfall Monitoring in the Amazon: A Challenge for Climate and Climate Change Research and a Need for Adaptation Strategies Policy-Making
Total Annual Precipitation: Almost everyday it rains in the Amazon Forest so we are dealing with a very wet environment.
IPCC AR4 Report
Temperature Projections
Need 'downscaling' for applications and adaptation strategies
(Note: Mostly Photos Shown to Provide Argument Points, not alot of information I can provide here. We are prohibited from taking too many photos and there are too many slides)
Conventional Stations Involved:
1910: 1---> 2010: 104 (Amazon)
1910: 25---> 2010: 695 (Rest of Brazil)
The lack of Conventional Stations in order to monitor the Amazon Rainforest led to the adoption of Automatic Stations in order to ensure stations would be operational. Real time communication achieved through the use of a cell phone.
Automatic Stations Involved:
2000: 1---> 2010: 94 (Amazon)
2000: 4---> 2010: 371 (Rest of Brazil)
Historical Climate Data is currently being digitized and being made available to the Public in order to make sure a memory of Brazil's climate in the case it proves relevant to solve current and future problems.
This Data Bank is a little difficult to do simply because the records are so old that they present a number of challenges in themselves:
The Data collected by INMET is available to the Public on the following website: www.inmet.gov.br
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In 2010, the world saw a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season. I started wondering if there was some type of connection between hurricane seasons and droughts in Brazil. Records show that 1926 was one of the strongest hurricane seasons on record (second only to 1950 which was also a historial drought year). Records have shown a correlation exists between Annual Hurricane Days and Manaus Low Water Marks.
Climate forcing and climate projections for the Amazon Region and the Globe
Ronald Prinn, TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT; Director, Center for Global Change Science; Co-Director, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, MIT
Email: rprinn@mit.edu (for citation permission)
Website: http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Coming out of the last Ice Age, we did see an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. However, this change didn't became very significant until the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s. Methane is another substance which saw increased presence in the atmosphere after the Ice Age. Nitrous Oxide also known as 'laughing gas' has also experienced an increased prescence in the atmosphere.
What are the major human & Natural Activities Forcing Climate Changes?
Global Land-Ocean Temperature Change (Base Period: 1961-1990) show extended warming, despite a few cooling times appearing on the charts, and shows that the temperature anomaly has increased from -0.2(in 1880) to 0.6 (in 2010) Celsius. The three warmest years recorded with thermometers in the Last 150 years were 1998, 2005, and 2010.
2 common ways to express policy goals for climate mitigation:
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12:00 PM- Progress in Education Policy in the 2000s
Fernando Haddad, Minister of Education, Brazil
CANCELLED!
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1:30 PM- Amazon Ecosystem and Environmental Response
Chair: Dara Entekhabi,
Panelists:
Are we ready for REDD? Multidimensional policies for reducing Amazon deforestation: 2001-2010
Gilberto Camara, Director National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Summary:
Deforestation is responsible for 20% of Global GHG Emissions. Can we base global policies on this statement. In the 80s and 90s there was some debate as to the extent of land change emissions. Was the percentage in the 30s or 20s in terms of percent of total emissions. In 2010, it has been discovered to be <10% of total emissions. This is largely in part by countries taking it upon themselves to decrease land change emissions. Brazil closely monitors its rainforest through INPE Monitoring Systems which give 15-day warnings of newly deforested large areas. This system has made Brazil a country to be envied.
Globo (The Main Television Network of Brazil) has given a hand to outreach in creating a website showing deforestation activities, promotes protest, etc.
This has led to thousands of arrests however an interesting fact arose from these arrests, 50% of deforestation in only 2% of the area.
This move has cut many ethanol and sugar cane producers from potential farmland. Therefore, they started using already deforested land in order to raise cattle (since Brazil is one of the largest exporters of Beef in the World). In order to combat this move, retailers imposed a 'Soy Moratorium in the Amazon Biome'. Retailers would not pay for beef that was raised on Amazon property.
So, let us look at REDD. REDD is very cheap. But it may be just a bunch of Hot Air to distract us from the matter at hand. However, the only place asking for a reduction of emissions is the EU. If Brazil was able to reduce deforestation from 2005 to 2020 would be 2/3 of the total proposed cuts of emissions by the EU.
Role of Vegetation in shaping regional climate over the Amazon Basin
Elfatih Eltahir, Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT
Summary:
During the 1970s and 80s, major deforestation was occurring in Brazil. Even though it has been drastically curbed, it still leaves its mark on the environment.
Degradation of Vegetation:
The Changing Amazon: Recent Results from the LBA Experiment
Paulo Artaxo, Professor, Environmental Physics, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
Opportunities for Research on Environmental Issues
Summary:
(Note: This presentation included many slides with Scientific Data I did not have time to write down, photos are limited so apologies. Notes may also appear scattered because of only a select few slides translatable to text without including alot of Jargon.).
Some key issues that are important from the scientific, public policies and conservation in Amazonia:
Predicting the fate of the Amazonian Ecosystems over the coming Century
Paul Moorcroft, Professor, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University
Summary:
Predicted changes in Amazon's rainfall levels due to increases in CO2 emissions. Current predictions are based on coarse-resolution atmospheric model (GCM) simulations that do not resolve many important factors in predicting rainfall patterns.
Land cover change is happening at small scales alongside increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Current terrestrial biosphere model formulations are interesting but essentially untested hypothesis for the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. They have not rigorously evaluated against observed metrics of ecosystem composition.
Andes Amazon Initiative (AAI) Research Consortium
Objective: Predict how land use change and climate change will affect the composition, structure, and functioning of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century.
Approach: A comprehensive evaluation and further development of the predictive capabilities of 4 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models against a suite of field measurements collected over a range of situations.
The Ecosystem Demography Model Version 2:
AAI Phase I: Evaluate and Test 4 Terrestrial Biosphere models using measurements from 14 sites across the Amazon basin. Short term ecosystem dynamics: Fluxes of carbon, water, energy over seasonal inter-annual timescales.
AAI Phase II: regional Ecosystem Model Simulations
AAI Phase III: Coupled Biosphere- Atmosphere Simulations
Precipitation change is caused by changes in the pattern of the vertical atmosphere.
Summary of Key Scientific Questions being addressed by AAI:
Is there a deforestation threshold?
How is the deforestation response affected by increasing levels of carbon dioxide?
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Going Global: What MNCs from Brazil and the U.S. can Teach Each Other
Chairs: Lawrence K. Fish, member, MIT Corporation; former Chairman and CEO, Citizens Financial Group
Suzanne Berger, Raphael Dorman and Helen Starbuck Professor of Political Science; Director, MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives
Fish: A two way exchange is now occurring in Brazil in exchange for the original one way communication that occurred between the United States and Brazil.
Berger: It is an opportunity to learn from a group of people the ability to operate globally. It is something that we are trying to master ourselves and trying to translate to our students.
Panelists:
Santander Group: A Global Model for a Dual World
Edvaldo Morata, Chief of Staff and Head of Corporate Banking, Sovereign Bank
Summary:
A global model in a dual world: Emerging and mature nations.
Leveraging global resources and relationships.
Santander: A successful franchise
Emerging and Mature Nations: One Model, Different Strategies
Embraer going Global
Mauro Kern Junior, Executive Vice President, New Programs, Airline Market, Embraer
Summary:
1950: ITA was created. Aeronautics Technological Institute (ITA)
1954: IPD was formed. Institute for Development and Research
Bandeirante makes its first flight...Sao Jose dos Campos (1968)
Embraer: Sao Jose dos Campos (1969)
It became the integration of two different cultures. Technological & Industrial Culture and the Entrepreneurial Culture. However, in the 1980s, Brazil and the Aeronautic Industry faced severe difficulties due to hyper-inflation and chaos in Latin America. Therefore, in 1994, it was seen as the only solution to privatize Embraer.
Aerospace Industry Fundamentals
Driving Innovation in Latin America
Eduardo W. Wanick, President & CEO, DuPont Latin America
Summary:
Innovation is a Key Driver for....
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It's a diverse world out there...but being yourself pays off
Luciano Siani, Vale, Director of Strategy and Human Resources
Summary:
Vale has expanded into 38 countries through acquisitions, Greenfield projects and sales & marketing.
Acquisitions: North American Mining...on the path of decline....or a new revival?
Before...
Itau Unibanco: The Path to Become a Global Player
Richard Marino, VP Latin American Operations, Itau Unibanco
Summary:
In recent years, Latin America has been more integrated to the global economy and has shown higher GDP growth rate than World's average. Latin America is growing faster than the World average. In this scenario, in this world of opportunity and crisis, it was a very harsh environment for many Brazilian Banks let alone International Banks. Before the Financial Crisis, Itau wasn't even on the Top 20 International Banks. Now it is #10. One of the largest banks by market cap, with the highest profitability and capitalization ratios among this group.
Itau Unibanco's Case:
Initial Drive for expansion was a response to our customer's needs...
Brazilian Multinational
Presented by Richard Locke
8:30 AM- Policy Innovation
Chair: Ben Ross Schneider, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Co-Director, MIT-Brazil Program
Panelists:
Rigorous Testing of Policy Innovation: Lessons for Brazil
Rachel Glennerster, Executive Director, Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), MIT
Website: http://www.povertyactionlab.org/
Summary- Fighting Poverty with Scientific Evidence:
J-PAL: A Network of Research Centers which conduct of evaluations in 46 countries run by 52 academics.
In Latin America, 72 Evaluations in 11 countries. But the first question to ask is why do we do what we do?
- We have little hard evidence on key questions:
- What is the impact of micro-finance?
- What is most cost effective way to promote safer sexual behavior?
- Better evidence is essential for maximizing impact of limited resources
- Better evidence on impact & resources based on evidence can help building support for more poverty programs
- Standard ways of measuring impact:
- Changes over time
- How do beneficiaries compare to non beneficiaries
- But this does not distinguish impact of program from other factors
- Children learn over time (with or without a program)
- First to sign up for a program are not typical (e.g. microfinance)
- Randomized evaluation ensures beneficiaries are so different....
Evaluation of corruption audits in Brazil
- In 2003, the government of Brazil started an anti-corruption program based on random audits of municipal government's expenditures.
- No significant difference for just having an audit
- Those where 2 or more violations were found were 7 percentage points less likely to be elected
- Municipalities with local radio stations saw bigger effects
- 2010, Chilean Ministry of Planning asked J-PAL to convene a commission of local and international academics to:
- Identify the main social policy challenges to Chile.
- Propose innovative programs that would then be implemented....
4 Proposals of the Commission:
1.) Increasing information and school choice for poor families
2.) Support & Incentives to teachers
3.) Programs for Rehabilitation and Social Integration
4.) Opportunities for the Youth through a Multi-Dimensional Program
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The New Brazilian Social Policies
Marcelo Neri, Chief Economist, Center for Social Policies, Fundacao Getulio Vargas
Website: http://fgv.br/cps/nmc/
Summary: New Social Policies in Brazil
Brazil vs. BRICs;
Emphasize not only GDP Growth, but also:
- Stocks of Wealth
- Household Flows
- Distribution of Resources
- Subjective Measure of Well-Being
Income Distribution Dynamics (Bottom 20%/ Top 20%)
Brazil - 6.3%/1.7%
India- 1%/2.8%China- 8.5%/15%
South Africa- 5.8%/7.6%
Mean Income vs. GDP:
PNAD has been higher than GDP in the past few years.
Is it Sustainable?
The synthetic household indicator of consumption increased by 22.6% between 2003 and 2009, while the index of income generation (based on productive assets) raised 31.2%. Difference of 38% in favor of the production side. The most prevalent sign of this is 'formal' employment with some form of job security.
In 1970, Brazilian women had on average 6.7 kids. Currently the have 1.9 children. This along with economic prosperity allows for the household to experience a greater quality of life. However some regions are still experiencing high poverty levels. The Northeastern, rural areas have experienced slower economic growth. For example:
Higher Income Increases on Excluded Groups:
Northeast (42% x 16% SE)
Rural Areas (49% x 16% Metro)
Favelas (41.6%)
Sources of Income Growth 2009
Jobs Income: 76%
Private Income (Other): 2%
Bolsa Familia: 2%
Social Security(MW*): 5%
Social Security (>MW): 15%
Poverty fell 16% in only 12 months in 2009. The Lula Administration has reduced poverty by 64% since 1994 when the economy was stabilized.
Social Policy: MVPs
- Crediamigo of NE
- CCTs (Bolsa Familia)
- Education Proficiency
- Target to Erradicate Extreme Poverty by 2014
- Secondary School Initiatives
Bolsa Familia 2.0- New Challenges
- Pre-Schooling (0-6), School Quality (7-15), 2nd Bolsa-Escola (16-17)--> Opportunities Generation
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Science in Brazil: Never Too Late
Sergio Rezende, former Minister of Science and Technology, Brazil; Professor of Physics, Federal University of Pernambuco
Website: http://www.mct.gov.br/
Rezende:
- Historical Remarks on S&T in Brazil
- Recent Advances in S&T
- Opportunities for Scientific Cooperation
- Very few scientists. Mostly in centers for research in health and agriculture.
- No full-time faculty positions or graduate programs.
- Few engineers in areas other than civil (for construction), mechanical (industry), and chemical (for sugar industry)
1951- CNPq- Conselho Nacional de Pesquisas (National Research Council) and CAPES (Commission for Personnel Improvement) created with the mission of providing fellowships to students and grants to individual researchers
1958- Sao Paulo State Science Foundation - FAPESP begins operation
1963- BNDE establishes FUNTEC, a fund to support institutional graduate programs
1967- Federal agency FINEP created to support developement in S&T. New fund, _FNDCT_ for grants to academic institutions and loans to companies
1969- Full-time positions for Science Faculty
Main reasons why S&T has not been decisive for the development of Brazil:
- Scientific Community Relativity small and little experienced until the 1980s
- Lack of R&D and innovation culture in industry
- Lack of continuity in S&T policies and funding
- No cross talk between industrial and S&T
Cases of success in areas of consistent federal policies
1.) Petrobras: World Leader in Deep Sea Drilling for Oil & Gas Production
2.) Embraer
3.) Embrapa: World Leader in Tropical Agribusiness R&D; Develops Agribusiness for Brazil
Brazilian agricultural production propelled by S&T: Brazilian scientific papers in trans-disciplinary studies.
Recent Advances in S&T:
- Expansion and Consolidation of the S, T, & I System
- Large increase in the number of fellowships
- Calls for grant proposals for small groups and young researchers
- Support Program for Centers of Excellence -PRONEX
- INCT- National Insitutes of Science & Technology
- Proinfra- Support Program for Infrastructure
- Support to Technological Innovation in Companies
- Grants for R&D in priority areas of the industrial policy (FINEP)
- Low interest loans for innovation (FINEP & BNDES)
- Incentives to new venture capital funds (FINEP & BNDES)
- Shareholding in innovative companies (BNDES)
- Tax-break Incentives for R&D
- National Program of incubators and technology parks
- Support for R&D by research institutions- SIBRATEC Sistema Brasileiro de Technologia
- R, D, & I in Strategic Areas
- Large Increase in Federal Budgets for S&T
- 2000: R$1.070 Million----> 2010: R$10.5 Million
- Investments in R&D: Progress has been shown, but not as dramatic as funding
- Remarkable Progress
- Graduate Degrees
- 1987: 5,000 Masters & PhDs awarded
- 2009: 50,000 Masters & PhDs awarded
- Venture Capital's New Hot Spot
- Universities (366)
- Development & Research Centers (77)
- PhD programs evaluated by CAPES;
- 120 programs with highest grades (6,7) on a scale from 1-7:
- Requirement: Must have websites in English |:)|
- Areas of Interest to MIT-Brazil Program
- INPA
- CENPES
- INPE
- CTBE
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| Amazon Rainforest |
10:00 AM- Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Dara Entekhabi, Bacardi and Stockholm Water Foundations Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Director, Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering; Director, Earth System Initiative, MIT
Panelists:
Entekhabi: In the Amazon Forest, potential consequences demand serious attention. Need for research that reduces uncertainty and enables the formulation of science-based strategies for an environmentally sustainable future.
Regional Context-1:
Amazon ecosystem in the global system:
- Average discharge greater than the next 6 largest rivers combined;20% of all global freshwater riverine flow.
- Earth's largest oxygen-replenishing rainforest- so-called 'Lung of the Earth'
- Forests and soil exchanges carbon with the atmosphere; For now the system is a net sink of carbon.
- Brazilian rainforest and its water cycle (precipitation) are coupled in a feedback system.
- Particles as small as 10^-3 mm in diameter serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) to form rain droplets.
- Forest release natural organic compounds that get transformed into Secondary Organic Aerosal (SOA).
'Drought of the Century'~ In 2001, the Amazon rainforest absorbs a deviant less carbon than normal due to the lack of water being poured into the Amazon. In 2010, another drought occurred destroying the rainforest's ability to absorb carbon
Key Questions:
Are droughts driven by global change or natural visibility?
If global greenhouse gas emissions contribute to Amazon drought that in turn lead to this major ecosystem to absorb less (or even release) carbon into the atmosphere, could this result in a global change feedback loop?
How do tropical ecosystems and their climate co-evolve and respond to one-another?
How may the Amazonia ecosystem respond to global change?
Most (80%) IPCC models predict drier Amazon and permanent transition to what is now a drought condition; What are the projections and their uncertainties?
Historical Climate Variability in the Amazon and South American Regions
Antonio Moura, Director National Meteorology Institute, Brazil
Summary:
Rainfall Monitoring in the Amazon: A Challenge for Climate and Climate Change Research and a Need for Adaptation Strategies Policy-Making
Total Annual Precipitation: Almost everyday it rains in the Amazon Forest so we are dealing with a very wet environment.
IPCC AR4 Report
Temperature Projections
Need 'downscaling' for applications and adaptation strategies
(Note: Mostly Photos Shown to Provide Argument Points, not alot of information I can provide here. We are prohibited from taking too many photos and there are too many slides)
Conventional Stations Involved:
1910: 1---> 2010: 104 (Amazon)
1910: 25---> 2010: 695 (Rest of Brazil)
The lack of Conventional Stations in order to monitor the Amazon Rainforest led to the adoption of Automatic Stations in order to ensure stations would be operational. Real time communication achieved through the use of a cell phone.
Automatic Stations Involved:
2000: 1---> 2010: 94 (Amazon)
2000: 4---> 2010: 371 (Rest of Brazil)
Historical Climate Data is currently being digitized and being made available to the Public in order to make sure a memory of Brazil's climate in the case it proves relevant to solve current and future problems.
This Data Bank is a little difficult to do simply because the records are so old that they present a number of challenges in themselves:
- Fungus
- Fragile Nature of Paper
- Sheer Volume of Documents
- In some areas, e.g. Amazon, lack of proper storage facilities
Conclusion:
- There is an increased demand for scientific guidance for climate variability and climate change adaptation.
- There is a mismatch between scales that modeling science can provide and the smaller scale required for actions policy making.
- Historical Data are needed to be amalgamated with scenario modeling results and proper 'downscaling'
The Data collected by INMET is available to the Public on the following website: www.inmet.gov.br
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Rainfall monitoring in the Amazon region: A Challenge for Climate and Climate Change Research and a Need for Adaptation Strategies policy making.
Earle Williams, Principal Research Engineer, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT
Summary:
The Severe Amazon Drought of 1926
Visit to Manaus, Brazil in November 2010; witness to a recent drought
Giant Raingages in Tropical Continental Zones
--Study of the 1926 Amazon Drought (2005)
The Amazon Basin and Sub-Basin Drained at Manaus: The drought was so great that people were digging diamonds out of the river bank, temperatures were greatly elevated, steam was everywhere making the environment very humid.
The Record of Annual High Water Marks in Manaus Harbor (1903-2010) shows that the drought in 1926 changed the typical water level dropped from 2750 to 10cm or 5 deviations. The temperature also reached 39 Celsius which is over 10 degrees higher than normal. There was also a significant decrease in thunderstorms during this time period as well.
Now lets fast-forward to 2010.
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| Photo showing an affected Region of Manaus (2010) |
Conclusions:
1926- Remains the most severe Amazon drought in the record from 1903 to present.
2010 tied a record for the most severe dry season drought.
A characteristic feature of the majority of severe droughts is activity in the Pacific & Atlantic Oceans.
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Climate forcing and climate projections for the Amazon Region and the Globe
Ronald Prinn, TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT; Director, Center for Global Change Science; Co-Director, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, MIT
Email: rprinn@mit.edu (for citation permission)
Website: http://globalchange.mit.edu/
Coming out of the last Ice Age, we did see an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. However, this change didn't became very significant until the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s. Methane is another substance which saw increased presence in the atmosphere after the Ice Age. Nitrous Oxide also known as 'laughing gas' has also experienced an increased prescence in the atmosphere.
What are the major human & Natural Activities Forcing Climate Changes?
Global Land-Ocean Temperature Change (Base Period: 1961-1990) show extended warming, despite a few cooling times appearing on the charts, and shows that the temperature anomaly has increased from -0.2(in 1880) to 0.6 (in 2010) Celsius. The three warmest years recorded with thermometers in the Last 150 years were 1998, 2005, and 2010.
 |
| Carbon Counter in NYC Penn Station to Advertise Greenhouses Gases being released into the atmosphere. |
2 common ways to express policy goals for climate mitigation:
- Aim to keep Global Greenhouse Gases below Specified Levels (for this purpose levels of non-CO2 gases are typically converted to their equivalent levels of CO2 that would have the same effect on climate; we are currently at about 472 ppm CO2 equivalents.
- Aim to maintain policies which help combat increases in Global Greenhouse Gases.
[(delta) T> 2 Celsius| (delta) T > 4 Celsius| (delta) T > 6 Celsius]
No policy @ 1400| [100%| 85%| 25%]
Stabilize @ 900 (L4) [100%| 25%| 0.25%]
''@790 (L3) [97%| 7%| <0.25%]
''@ 660 (L2) [80%| 0.25%| <0.25%]
''@ 550 (L1) [25%|<0.25%|<0.25%]
What are the projected patterns of changes (1990 to 2095) in Temperature (C) and Rainfall (%) for Amazon Region?
Maximum Warming from 1990-2095 of 4-5 Celsius in June-Aug
Rainfall increases from 5-20% in Dec.-Feb. & Decreases 20-40% in June-Aug.
Poles Warm Muh Faster than Tropics; If Ice Sheets Melt, Howe much Sea Level Rise Could Occur?
Therefore, if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet disappeared, the sea level would rise 5 meters. If the Greenland Ice Sheet disappears then the sea level would rise 7 meters. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer (~4 Celsius) than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 6-8 meters of sea level rise.
What would happen if Arctic Tundra & Permafrost thaws? This would induce emission over time of the 1670 billion tons of carbon stored in Arctic Tundra & Frozen soil. This is about 200 times current annual worldwide emission levels.
Typhoons/ Cyclones/ Hurricanes & Oceanic Warming: Increasing destructiveness over the past 30 years.
Therefore, we may need to look at reducing our carbon footprint. We can do this using Biofuels. However, are there issues regarding the conversion of land for renewable energy at large scales? Biofuels require almost 3.4 billion acres of land dedicated to producing ethanol which is about 8.5 times the cropland present in the United States. It also increases competition from needs of food production, disruption of natural ecosystems, etc.
So do we need climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigration? We are already committed to some unavoidable warming even at current Greenhouse gas levels (about 0.6 Celsius). Also, adaptation can also help out in the short run in order to achieve our goals of decreasing our carbon footprint.
However, how can we express the value of a climate policy under uncertainty? What would stabilization at 660 ppm-equivalent of change.
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12:00 PM- Progress in Education Policy in the 2000s
Fernando Haddad, Minister of Education, Brazil
CANCELLED!
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1:30 PM- Amazon Ecosystem and Environmental Response
Chair: Dara Entekhabi,
Panelists:
Are we ready for REDD? Multidimensional policies for reducing Amazon deforestation: 2001-2010
Gilberto Camara, Director National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
Summary:
Deforestation is responsible for 20% of Global GHG Emissions. Can we base global policies on this statement. In the 80s and 90s there was some debate as to the extent of land change emissions. Was the percentage in the 30s or 20s in terms of percent of total emissions. In 2010, it has been discovered to be <10% of total emissions. This is largely in part by countries taking it upon themselves to decrease land change emissions. Brazil closely monitors its rainforest through INPE Monitoring Systems which give 15-day warnings of newly deforested large areas. This system has made Brazil a country to be envied.
Globo (The Main Television Network of Brazil) has given a hand to outreach in creating a website showing deforestation activities, promotes protest, etc.
This has led to thousands of arrests however an interesting fact arose from these arrests, 50% of deforestation in only 2% of the area.
This move has cut many ethanol and sugar cane producers from potential farmland. Therefore, they started using already deforested land in order to raise cattle (since Brazil is one of the largest exporters of Beef in the World). In order to combat this move, retailers imposed a 'Soy Moratorium in the Amazon Biome'. Retailers would not pay for beef that was raised on Amazon property.
So, let us look at REDD. REDD is very cheap. But it may be just a bunch of Hot Air to distract us from the matter at hand. However, the only place asking for a reduction of emissions is the EU. If Brazil was able to reduce deforestation from 2005 to 2020 would be 2/3 of the total proposed cuts of emissions by the EU.
Role of Vegetation in shaping regional climate over the Amazon Basin
Elfatih Eltahir, Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT
Summary:
During the 1970s and 80s, major deforestation was occurring in Brazil. Even though it has been drastically curbed, it still leaves its mark on the environment.
Degradation of Vegetation:
- Increase surface albedo
- Decrease of net solar radiation at the surface
- Decrease of the total flux of heat (sensible + latent) from the surface into the boundary layer into the soil
- Reduce roughness length
- Reduce Depth of Root Zone
- Reduce Vaporization
- Increase surface temperature
- Decrease concentration of water vapor in the boundary layer
- ...
The Changing Amazon: Recent Results from the LBA Experiment
Paulo Artaxo, Professor, Environmental Physics, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
Opportunities for Research on Environmental Issues
Summary:
(Note: This presentation included many slides with Scientific Data I did not have time to write down, photos are limited so apologies. Notes may also appear scattered because of only a select few slides translatable to text without including alot of Jargon.).
Some key issues that are important from the scientific, public policies and conservation in Amazonia:
- Carbon cycling and the physiological and climatic controls
- Atmospheric Chemistry in Terms of Oxidants & Biosphere-atmosphere interactions
- Aerosol Clouds...
16 LBA Flux Towers to Monitor the Amazonia.
Amazonica project to approach the proper measurement of the carbon effects.
The Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest:
2 plots with rain exclusion (drought experiments) in Amazonia. Intact forests seem resilient to substantial climate changes compared to disturbed forests. Spatial patterns of standardized anomalies of normalized difference vegetation index.
Amazonia- Average Aerosol forcing clear sky
Cloud Physics in Pristine Atmosphere: Relationship between cloud properties and aerosol loading in Amazonia.
Strong aerosol effect on forest photosynthesis diffuse radiation have a large effect on CO2 releases.
A Issue for research in Amazonia
- Establishment of a permanent atmospheric composition monitoring station in Amazonia.
Predicting the fate of the Amazonian Ecosystems over the coming Century
Paul Moorcroft, Professor, Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University
Summary:
Predicted changes in Amazon's rainfall levels due to increases in CO2 emissions. Current predictions are based on coarse-resolution atmospheric model (GCM) simulations that do not resolve many important factors in predicting rainfall patterns.
Land cover change is happening at small scales alongside increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Current terrestrial biosphere model formulations are interesting but essentially untested hypothesis for the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. They have not rigorously evaluated against observed metrics of ecosystem composition.
Andes Amazon Initiative (AAI) Research Consortium
Objective: Predict how land use change and climate change will affect the composition, structure, and functioning of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century.
Approach: A comprehensive evaluation and further development of the predictive capabilities of 4 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models against a suite of field measurements collected over a range of situations.
The Ecosystem Demography Model Version 2:
AAI Phase I: Evaluate and Test 4 Terrestrial Biosphere models using measurements from 14 sites across the Amazon basin. Short term ecosystem dynamics: Fluxes of carbon, water, energy over seasonal inter-annual timescales.
AAI Phase II: regional Ecosystem Model Simulations
AAI Phase III: Coupled Biosphere- Atmosphere Simulations
Precipitation change is caused by changes in the pattern of the vertical atmosphere.
Summary of Key Scientific Questions being addressed by AAI:
Is there a deforestation threshold?
How is the deforestation response affected by increasing levels of carbon dioxide?
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Going Global: What MNCs from Brazil and the U.S. can Teach Each Other
Chairs: Lawrence K. Fish, member, MIT Corporation; former Chairman and CEO, Citizens Financial Group
Suzanne Berger, Raphael Dorman and Helen Starbuck Professor of Political Science; Director, MIT International Science and Technology Initiatives
Fish: A two way exchange is now occurring in Brazil in exchange for the original one way communication that occurred between the United States and Brazil.
Berger: It is an opportunity to learn from a group of people the ability to operate globally. It is something that we are trying to master ourselves and trying to translate to our students.
Panelists:
Santander Group: A Global Model for a Dual World
Edvaldo Morata, Chief of Staff and Head of Corporate Banking, Sovereign Bank
Summary:
A global model in a dual world: Emerging and mature nations.
Leveraging global resources and relationships.
Santander: A successful franchise
Emerging and Mature Nations: One Model, Different Strategies
- Emerging:
- Increase exposure to strong local franchises w/ critical mass
- Grow revenues; increase market share
- Capitalize on large and rising middle class
- Mature:
- Take advantage of restructuring processes, gain market share, strengthen market position
- Deleveraging: Low Credit Demand
- 'Organized' Competition
- Cost of funding on the rise
- Delinquency rates remain at relatively high levels
- Regulatory Constraints
- Brazil Franchise vs. US Franchise
- Brazil; 3700 branches; 54,000 employees; $4Billion in profit, 22% of Groups Profits
- US; 721 branches; 8,000 employees
- Total U.S.
- $1.5B in Profit
- Low Risk Model; Always Lowest Risk
- Leveraging Global Relationships:
- Relationships-
- Staples~ US Based Office Supply Store
- Heinz~ US Based Food Company
- Votorantim~ Brazilian Cement Company
- A Successful Business Model:
- Control Costs and Deliver Synergies
- Continue to Manage Asset Margins
- Keep Low Risk Profile
- Global Business Model
- Different Tactics for emerging and developed nations
- Competitive advantages from global diversification
- Deeper business relationships
- Transfer of Knowledge
- Recruitment
Embraer going Global
Mauro Kern Junior, Executive Vice President, New Programs, Airline Market, Embraer
Summary:
1950: ITA was created. Aeronautics Technological Institute (ITA)
1954: IPD was formed. Institute for Development and Research
Bandeirante makes its first flight...Sao Jose dos Campos (1968)
Embraer: Sao Jose dos Campos (1969)
It became the integration of two different cultures. Technological & Industrial Culture and the Entrepreneurial Culture. However, in the 1980s, Brazil and the Aeronautic Industry faced severe difficulties due to hyper-inflation and chaos in Latin America. Therefore, in 1994, it was seen as the only solution to privatize Embraer.
Aerospace Industry Fundamentals
- High Technology
- Qualified People
- Global Presence
- Cash Intensiveness
- Flexibility
Turboprops-----> Commercial Jets
In 2010: 1580 aircraft, 103 airlines from 56 countries! This means they are 4% of fleets and 8% of airlines.
Company Revenue: US $5.35 Billion
Going Global to Develop New Products
- 70s: Xavante--Cooperation with Italians
- 80s: Strengthen Partnerships with Italians
- 90s: ERJ 145 family with International Partners (Risk Sharing Partners)
- 00s: E-Jets family with International Partners
- 2000s: Factory in China
- 2011: Factory in the United States
- 2013: Factory in Portugal
Driving Innovation in Latin America
Eduardo W. Wanick, President & CEO, DuPont Latin America
Summary:
Innovation is a Key Driver for....
- The Competitiveness of a Society
- The Living Standards and Quality of Life of a Society
- The Growth of Companies
90% of patents issued in the US are issued to corporations and not Universities. So we cannot blame the government for this one, this is a business issue.
The Vision of DuPont:
We are a science company, creating sustainable solutions essential to a better, safer, healthier life for people everywhere...
However, our traditional models did not offer much interaction with emerging markets...
EMGI- Market Driven Innovation Process
Applying this process has led to great success for DuPont in Latin America. The Broad Range of Recent Innovation in Latin America stretches from creating a sustainable Chilean Salmon Industry to high nutrition value foods for low income households.
Examples:
Chile: Salmon Farming is unsustainable since it takes about 5 kg of wild fish in order to produce 1 kg of Salmon. Lack of Omega 3 prevents replacement of fish oil by vegetable oil in the feed. Solution is a sustainable source of pure Omega 3 from a plant that produces a sugar.
Brazil: DuPont Armura- Armura protects against 97.6% of all firearms in Brazil.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's a diverse world out there...but being yourself pays off
Luciano Siani, Vale, Director of Strategy and Human Resources
Summary:
Vale has expanded into 38 countries through acquisitions, Greenfield projects and sales & marketing.
Acquisitions: North American Mining...on the path of decline....or a new revival?
Before...
- Independent Practices
- Risk Aversion
- Seniority
- Plan First, do later
- One thing at a time
- Integration and best-practice sharing
- Risk Taking
- Meritocracy
- Do first, adjust later
- All things at the same time
Greenfield...African will change the world of mining forever...and maybe Vale will change African Mining
Treat employees as you would treat your own family.
Mozambique--> Guinea-Bissau---> others in the future
Sales & Marketing...China has changed the Rules of the Game...but so did Vale.
You can have your fair share of the cake and eat it too.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Itau Unibanco: The Path to Become a Global Player
Richard Marino, VP Latin American Operations, Itau Unibanco
Summary:
In recent years, Latin America has been more integrated to the global economy and has shown higher GDP growth rate than World's average. Latin America is growing faster than the World average. In this scenario, in this world of opportunity and crisis, it was a very harsh environment for many Brazilian Banks let alone International Banks. Before the Financial Crisis, Itau wasn't even on the Top 20 International Banks. Now it is #10. One of the largest banks by market cap, with the highest profitability and capitalization ratios among this group.
Itau Unibanco's Case:
Initial Drive for expansion was a response to our customer's needs...
Brazilian Multinational
- Brazilian Corporations began operating abroad
- Demanded financing for their expansion
- Itau strategically placed offices in US, Europe, and Asia
- Home to Japanese Clients outside of Japan
- Are we ready to go global?
- Where is the right place to go?
- Do we have what it takes to compete in a world class environment?
- Do we have the right leadership?
1.) Meet International Clients Demand (68%)
2.) Create new markets due to domestic market saturation (64%)
3.) Meet Need for Hard Currency Revenues....
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Q&A:
Question: What are you doing in order to ensure innovation occurs in your companies? If you cannot answer this one then are you interested in possible innovation with MIT teams?
Answers:
Itau~
Trying to develop a Corporate University in order to train Itau employees. We need content or innovation and contact...MIT Sloan is surely one of these partners...Technology helps
[Richard Locke--Money directed to sustainability projects with the SLab in parntership with Local Brazilian financial institutions
Partners on the Long Term]
Vale:
Deputy Dean of the Universidade
Sustainable Energy and Sustainable Mining
Establish Partnerships with Universities in relationship to research around the world
Embraer
Re-evaluating boldness and innovation; we are not very good with formalizing things and analyzing several cases that are interesting to industry
very good selection process of good ideas
in terms of working together with MIT team yes we have been working together with the MIT Teams here in order to foster the relationship between industry and technology in the end
------End of The Conference---------
Q&A:
Question: What are you doing in order to ensure innovation occurs in your companies? If you cannot answer this one then are you interested in possible innovation with MIT teams?
Answers:
Itau~
Trying to develop a Corporate University in order to train Itau employees. We need content or innovation and contact...MIT Sloan is surely one of these partners...Technology helps
[Richard Locke--Money directed to sustainability projects with the SLab in parntership with Local Brazilian financial institutions
Partners on the Long Term]
Vale:
Deputy Dean of the Universidade
Sustainable Energy and Sustainable Mining
Establish Partnerships with Universities in relationship to research around the world
Embraer
Re-evaluating boldness and innovation; we are not very good with formalizing things and analyzing several cases that are interesting to industry
very good selection process of good ideas
in terms of working together with MIT team yes we have been working together with the MIT Teams here in order to foster the relationship between industry and technology in the end
------End of The Conference---------
Thursday, April 14, 2011
MIT-Brazil Forum/Conferência Brasil-MIT - April 14, 2011
Location: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA
Time: 7:40 AM
'Twenty First Century Challenges to Provide opportunities to think together. The Forum aims to foster Brazil-MIT collaborations that will bring about scientific and technological advances of global significance.'-
Topic: Welcome Message...
(Presented by Susan Hockfield, MIT President and Jorge Morgan, Sovereign Bank)Summary of Statements:
Hockfield; This is our first major conference on Brazil. I would like to give a brief thank you to those who have made this conference possible. MIT is celebrating its 150th Anniversary, this is the time that we look back upon our Founder (William Barton Rogers) and his idea of problem based approach. MIT-Brazil has appeared to in the blink of an eye ranging from providing Portuguese Speaking Courses, Internships to Students interested in changing the world, MIT Seed Funds for Global Projects, etc.
Morgan: United States & Brazil share many similarities, especially the fact that both help foster the entrepreneurship, higher education, and innovative thinking. MISTI-Brazil program has allowed the fostering of partnerships between students from both the US and Brazil.
9:00 AM- Energy
Speakers:
Clean Energy & Economic Growth
-Ernest Moniz, Cecil & Ida Green Distinguished Professor of Physics, Director of MIT Energy Initiative
-Persio Arida, former Central Bank Governor, Brazil; Chairman of Asset Management; Board Member of BTG Pactual
Summary of Statements:
Perfect Storm of Energy Challenges
Moniz:
- Energy Service for 10 billion people at Mid-Century
- Environment/ Climate Change: 'De-Carbonize' by Mid-Century
- Energy Security given geological & geopolitical realities: diversify transportation fuels?
- Fundamental Question: Can we significantly decrease energy and carbon intensity while accommodating needed economic growth.
- Projected doubling of energy use; still over 10 billion without power in 2030
- Tripled Electricity Use for Brazil by 2050; A population of 203 million with about $2 Trillion.
- GDP per person: $9,900 while Energy/ GDP is 5.0 mmBtu/ $K
- The principle challenge is reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions, with largest criminals being transportation and lighting for residential & commercial locations.
Brazil: How big in oil?
Arida: About half of the energy from Brazil if from Renewable Sources and this trend should continue in the next decade. Unlike other countries, the debate in Brazil is not with developing new renewable energy initiatives. The Electricity picture is composed of 81.5% of Hydro-power. Oil is made from naturally renewable resources and vehicles in Brazil can switch from traditional gasoline and ethanol.
- The investment to GDP ration in Brazil was 19.2% (2010) with a potential output close to 4.5% (this assuming that Total Factor Productivity, TFP, to be about 1.5%).
- In order to increase the potential output to 5%, it is necessary to increase the investment to GDP ratio to 24%.
- Production has risen 3.1X in 15 years to 2.1mbd
- Reserves have risen 2.7x as well to 17 years and possibly 28 years
- It is a small exporter of oil as well which is opposite to its position just decades earlier when it was a large importer of oil.
- Without the pre-salt resources, Brazil holds the 17th place among the World's Largest Reserves behind Angola.
Does Brazil want to do more? It would appear it does...
Brazil has undeveloped reserves which have yet to reach its full potential.
Petrobras: Operates at 66% of the 'growth' and is aggressively guided by government.
The bidding rules:
- Up front cash payment- How much is would pay for the concession
- Minimum Work Program- How much it would invest at a minimum
- Local Content Pledge- How much he would buy from local suppliers in the development of whatever he found
Brazil does not have many yards. It currently has 5 offshore yards today, but most are small. Only one can build more than one offshore production unit per year.
Many are taken with other demands...one is taken with tanker construction and the other maintenance
Industry Policy and Welfare
Imports would be a solution but would appear to be a paradox
No Dutch Disease from Oil
- Trade Openness View
- imports +exports as a % of GDP is close to 23.3% for Brazil (2010)
- In the US this ratio is 28.6%
- Flow View
- 2020, US$81 Billion flow from the Pre-salt will account for 1.6% of GDP in 2020.
- Brazil is a domestic oriented country, not an exporting oriented country.
- Current deficit will decrease (2.3% of GDP but will get higher), but not that much because of the import content of investment.
1.) Since Nuclear Power is such a huge portion of Brazil's plan to de-carbonize its energy production, how does the disaster of the Fukushima Accident affect these current plans?
Moniz: Well, the cost of Nuclear Power will increase dramatically. That is without a doubt. Also the current conversation of the need to extend the licensing agreements for Nuclear Power Plants from 40 years to 60 years will be drastically overhauled. My expectation is for a push for the increase production of small power plants instead of large compounds like we saw in Fukushima.
2.) Is education and communication another challenge to energy and should financial incentives be offered in order to increase the adoption of clean energy initiatives?
Moniz: I don't believe that policy won't advance very far until it doesn't cost so much. Unfortunately, these initiatives must be based reducing financial costs in order to garner the attention of the public. The public is just not ready to tackle clean energy without seeking a financial gain currently.
3.) What is going to happen to Brazil after 10 years?
Arida: That is a difficult question because the mass of uncertainty is so great. But I believe that Brazil will increase its reliance on ethanol and will be adopted as a long term commitment. Hydro may become less green after 10 years but will still be used.
4.) My question is about Electric Cars, you mentioned that to reduce carbon dioxide emissions we need to reduce consumption in the transportation. In Brazil, what are the barriers preventing the adoption? Is it scale? The operation costs are only 20% of those which use internal combustion engines.
Arida: The public may not be ready to accept such technology.
Moniz: The battery costs could be several thousand dollars, that is just too expensive. The only bright light in bringing availability of a practical electric car to mass markets is plug in and hybrids since they are cheaper.
9:55 AM- Biofuels
Jose Goldemberg, former Minister of Education, Brazil
Biofuels in Brazil: Past, Present, & Future Perspectives
George Stephanopoulos, Willard Henry Dow Professor of Biotechnology & Chemical Engineering, MIT
Biofuels in Brazil: Past, Present, & Future Perspectives
Goldemberg: We will focus on transportation as Brazil uses at least 30% of its energy in transportation. This is already a large strain on fuel resources. Almost 800 vehicles/ 1000 people in the United States while in Brazil it is 75 vehicles/ 1000 people. If Brazil is to follow the development trajectory of the United States, it could consume over 300% of its fuel resources in order to keep those vehicles on the road.
Therefore, Brazil must move from Petroleum, like it moved from hay to coal, and adopt the following methods of transportation:
- Biofuels
- Hybrids
- Electricity
Sugar Cane Ethanol Production in Brazil:
The majority of the production is in the state of Sao Paulo, so do not pay attention to those claims that the Amazon Forest is being destroyed for Sugar Cane production since it is banned.
Energy Balance: (Ratio is Power Output to Fossil Fuel Input)
- Sugar Cane: 9.3
- Wheat: 2.0
- Sugar Beets: 2.0
- Corn: 1.4
In the state of Sao Paulo there has been been adopted very vigorous Agro-Environmental zoning in Sao Paulo in order to control environment damage due to sugar cane. --
Perspectives on Advanced Biofuels
Stephanopoulos:
Perspectives on Advanced Biofuels
Stephanopoulos:
- Ethanol from Corn; Biodiesel from plant seeds and vegetable oils
- Ethanol from Sugarcane
What is the likelihood that one of the advanced biofuels will compete successfully with ethanol? We must consider several things before we make a decision on the practicality of advanced biofuels.
- Yields (gallons ethanol/ kg sugar) is most important metric for economical process.
- Ethanol is produced at almost maximum theoretical yield
- Ethanol has low energy density (very low cost per volume)
Algae
(Gallons of Oil Generated by Acre of Land)
- Soybeans - 48
- Sesame- 74
- Jatrophe- 202
- Cellusonic Ethanol- 533
- Sugarcane Ethanol- 566
- Algae~ 6,000
- 1 gallon of biodiesel= 3.8 Liters= 3.4 kgs
- 1 kg of Glucose (Sugar)----> Product- Ethanol (~0.51 kg)
- 1 kg of Glucose (Sugar)---> Product- Fats & Oils (~0.31 kg)
- Oil Producing Microbe: 312 g/L consumed ---> 80 g/L produced
Q & A:
1.) During the past 10 years, Sugar producers have been selling the biomass that accumulate from the sugar process to electricity focused companies. However some seem to be a little hesitant to participate because of the high upfront costs?
Stephanopoulos: Producers will only realize about 50% in producing ethanol then in producing other products such as oils and fats.
2.) How can one use a higher ethanol fuel mixture in vehicles being sold today and why haven't we seen an increase in strictly ethanol vehicles.
Goldemberg: If you mix gasoline with ethanol with up to 80/20 mixture, then little change in the engine is necessary just a change in the electric indicators in the engine. However, if you want more then you will have to change the engine. This explains the adoption of FlexFuel vehicles throughout Brazil with approximately 9/10 vehicles sold in Brazil today being Flex Fuel vehicles. The kits in order to transform a normal engine into a FlexFuel engine only goes for $100 in Brazil.
3.) During my visit to Brazil, I was amazed to discover that sugar cane is still being burned despite the health implications to the workers and environmental implications as well. The worker-boss dynamics on some of these plantations also seemed to strike me as well. What is Brazil doing about this waste of biomass and the relationships between worker, boss, and field?
Goldemberg: It is a practice that is being phased out and is considered an enormous waste of energy in order to harvest sugar cane. It is a practice that has created multiple health problems for Sugar Cane workers, however there are some who are very resistant to changing their methods of harvesting Sugar Cane which have been profitable for centuries. Perhaps it will take a hefty financial incentive in order to inspire true change and reform in sugar-cane harvesting.
4.) How much of sugar production is coming from production shifting from the Northeastern Region of Brazil to the Sao Paulo state? Would this cause many socio-economic problems for the Northern Region of Brazil?
Goldemberg: Sugar cane production took place in green fields in Sao Paulo in order to keep up with demand. Sugar Cane production in the Northern part of Brazil is expansive but only produces very low yields in comparison the the North.
5.) What impact would managerial changes, processing changes, experimentation of various varieties of Sugar Cane, etc.
Goldemberg: There can be large gains in the logistics regarding Sugar Cane Production, especially in the area of refineries. Since the producers and suppliers are usually located far away from each other many problems existing. One example is bickering between the two over who should pay for the transportation of the sugar cane or finished product. However the feedstock price is so low that is justifies that no change in needed in the process.
10:50 AM- Frontiers of Hydrocarbon Production
Solange Guedes, Executive Manager, Exploration and Production, PetrobrasSummary:
- Brazil is a continental country with....
- An area mass the size of the United States
- Petrobras:
- Market Value has increased to over 9x 2000 levels.
- Unique Approach to Development
- Petrobras in the world leader in Deep-Sea exploration...
Challenges of Deepwater Exploration: Opening New Frontiers in Hydrocarbon Production
Michael Triantafyllou, William I. Koch Professor of Marine Technology; Professor of Mechanical & Ocean Engineering, MIT
- Present Technology: Huge dependence on surface vessels and multiple cables attached to Ocean Floor.
- Commercial Acoustic Modems (low bit rate, no flexibility, limited networking)
- Near Term Technology: Decreases the dependence on multiple cables attached to surface vessel in order to extract oil from Deep Sea Resources.
- Capabilities to operate AUVs from surface without the presence or attachment to a surface vessel.
- MIT has developed the Odyssey IV for exploration of potential Deep Sea sites.
- Research Plan: Extend Odyssey IV for inspection in a subsea environment.
- Can detect pipe lines in very deep water depths. Similar to the one used during the BP Gulf Oil Spill.
- Research in Marine Robotics
- Robotic Tuna, which allows for the studying of Fish movements and patterns and more can help build more efficient Deep Water Exploration vehicles with fish-like agility.
- Long Term Technology
- Controllable Adhesive Apparatus
- Shape Deposition Manufacturing
- Ocean Senors:
- Lensless Imaging: May provide clearer vision of the water despite dust clouds, etc.
- 'Vision' through Flow Pressure to Iris which is inspired by so called 'Blind Fish' who do not have eyes because the darkness of their environment makes them useless.
- Acoustic Communication with flexibility
Susan Avery, President and Director, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Summary:
- Introduction to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
- Awarding Joint Graduate Degrees with MIT over the last 40 years
- National Deep Submergence Facility
- Four Ships, Multiple Underwater Vehicles, and Sensors
- What Academic Institutions Bring?
- Capability: Knowledge & Technology from Innovative Research
- Application of that Knowledge and Technology
- Willingness
- Independence
- Diligence
- Prudence
- Capacity Building
- The Relevance of Ocean Science to Deep Water Oil Exploration
- Information on Production Capacity and Activity
- Ecological Systems in place at exploration sites
- New Technologies
- Marrying Autonomy w/ Miniaturization
- An in-situ mass spectrometer for detection of low molecular weight gases and volatile organics. This can help detect underwater plumes full of hydrocarbons that occurred during the Gulf Oil Spill.
- Detection of Physical Changes in the Ocean
- Current dependence of Satellites needs to be changed in order to detect underwater currents which can only detected in the water (not above unfortunately) as proven during the Gulf Oil Spill.
- Ocean-bottom Search & Survey
- Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI)
- UTROV (Sensor Development which is untethered like current remote operated vehicles)
- Petrobras is currently using optical networks while conducting its Deep Water Exploration Activities.
12:00 PM- Brazil & Latam: A New Momentum
Pedro Moreira Salles, Chairman, Board of Itau' Unibanco Holding
(Electronics Not Allowed)
2:00 PM- Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Economic Growth
Richard Locke, Head of Political Science Department, Co-Director MIT- Brazil Program
Charles Cooney, Robert T. Haslam Professor of Chemical Engineering; Faculty Director, Deshpande Center for Technological Innovation, MIT
Edward Roberts, David Sarnoff Professor of Management Technology; Professor of Technological Innovation, Entrepreneurship and Strategic Management; Chair, MIT Entrepreneurship Center
Lita Nelsen, Director MIT Technology Licensing Office
Panel:
Reid: We (MIT) see entrepreneurship as a way of promoting innovation. It is also important of economic development. In the United States we are emerging from the 'Great Recession', the task of creating those new, good and sustainable jobs are the challenges facing not only the United States but also Brazil. Even though Brazil seemed to escape to recession unscathed, it still suffers from drastic underemployment. What we do here at MIT, what we do for the economy, and what we can do for the economy of Brazil.
University Entrepreneurial Impact: A Partial Case Study of MIT
Edward B. Roberts (MIT Sloan School of Management)
In 2001, a survey was conducted as usual to keep track of MIT Alumni. However, a question was added asking if the alum has participated in creating or forming a company or organization. An astounding number of MIT almuni responded that they participated in forming companies. MIT companies employ over 3 million employees with annual total sales $1,851,278,000,000 (that is a trillion)! This is being produced by 25,800 active companies. This does not include companies by non-MIT alum faculty members, mergers, companies owned by a MIT-alum who has since passed, etc. This economy is equal to the 17th largest economy. The majority of these firms are located in Massachusetts employer well over a million employees with California coming in second with approximately half a million. 'First Time' firms founded each decade by MIT alumni is approximately 10,000. 20% of Domestic MIT Alumni have become entrepreneurs with 30% of Non-Domestic MIT Alumni becoming entrepreneurs (with approximately 50% developing those companies in the United States).
'Serial' Entrepreneurs have also been growing as well therefore dramatically increasing the economic impact per alumni entrepreneur (data currently available still needs more time in order to allow alumni to develop second or third firms). Each successive firm is more successful than the previous firm.
We had companies being founded before we had licensing office or entrepreneurship centers. However these centers has allowed to accelerate this process by allowing for potential entrepreneurs to network, coaching, courses which help cover basics, etc.
The MIT Entrepreneurship Center focuses on real world team problem solving for future entrepreneurs as well.
Technology Transfer @ MIT
Lita Nelson
There exist many forms of Technology Transfer...however here we are talking about the purposeful transfer out of the university and into industry through licensing or patents.
Research--> Invention--> Development--> Innovation
Bringing new technology into industry for economic competitiveness. What may be very important to cover in order to understand patenting is the history of University patenting. Bayh-Dole Act of 1980 changed US university tech transfer landscape. This gave universities the ability to patent their research and profit from them (including the researcher) financially despite using government money to sponsor the research.
University technology is embryonic which means its feasibility nor market is known (like the gender of an embryo). The development will require high development risk. Therefore, Universities are willing to grant limited patents to companies so they can take on the risk of developing the technology or product. If we take a look at the pharmaceutical industry we see that they have very long time frames and very low success rate with drug trials. However, many innovative technologies will require substantial investment and time and therefore may not be very appeasing to a company. In order to entice a company to take on the risk of developing the technology a patent may be necessary. If we look at 2007, we see that even though patents filed that year made $2 billion. However the cost of that research is over $41 billion. It is skewed by a few very large royalties from fewer than 1% of patents. So think of research as a society contribution and not a money maker.
Our motto is impact not income. We are measuring ourselves by our impact on the community. The production of new licenses (bringing innovation to the market), increasing employment, etc. Therefore, we use the 'volume strategy' which doesn't focus on picking the winners but those you can break even but has the greatest impact (almost like the lottery, if you have a high volume then one of them you can strike lucky).
How are we able to do so? I believe it is due to the faculty and student awareness of innovation and research benefits. A pervasive entrepreneurial eco-system both within and around MIT. We are all well-networked in a highly entrepreneurial geographical area with investors, managers, lawyers, etc. Experienced in the formation and nurturing of early stage, technology based companies. This 'Entrepreneurial Eco-System' helps support the entrepreneurial aspirations of both students and faculty. All of the services provided through the University requires volunteers who work with the University in order to foster these ideas. Students graduate with a sense that 'I can do it too'. Changes life-time expectations. Entrepreneurship is infectious!
The Deshpande Center: Accelerating Technology Commercialization from University Laboratories
Charles Cooney
Mission: Create impact through technological innovation.
We were given this mission with a generous grant from Desh & Jaishree Deshpande and very limited guidelines on how to increase the impact MIT companies can have by implementing technological innovation.
The heart of the University is the creation of knowledge. It is from that research that ideas develop and begin evolving.
University Research --> Ideas Emerge from Basic Research--> Selection thru Peer Review (Academic & Business)--> Direction towards Market--> Connection to Markets & Financing--> New Company Created---> Company Growth
The concept of a customer is foreign to some who conduct research at the university. However in order to impact the market you will need to be able to create a product which someone is willing to pay for or nevertheless pay for. This is the idea behind our motto " Select, Direct, Connect". How do we support the idea-innovation value chain, in the following way...
Idea--> Invent--> Innovate--> Impact
(Selct--> Direct--> Connect)
Sometimes you expect to fail. Risk has two pieces: Risk= Probability x Impact. You can not change the risk without affecting the impact of the risk and the probability of the risk. Therefore, you must find a way to manage the risk while closing the gap between Academic Research and the Marketplace. This can be done by catalyst programs, innovation-teams, and a grant program. Also offering courses like 'Innovation Team' in order to help academics learn how to take their idea to market.
We have committed over ~$10 million in grants in order to fund 85 projects. 33% are making progress towards being start-up organizations. This experience has allowed us to learn about how to translate academic research into commercial impact.
Ideas emerge from a platform of basic science (Academic POV)
Ideas need to be recognized as solutions to problems (Marketing POV)
In closing, 'Progress is about focusing on your goal.'
Panel:
Q & A
REAP- MIT Entrepreneurship Program
University with Strengths in Science & Technology
Members must commit themselves to a min. 3 years, and once a year at member's location, and once at MIT. This is to sponsor the sharing of successes and failures among regions in order to create an appropriate model.
'It is more important to not make a mistake than to do something significant.' Lita Nelsen
This is a major issue facing Brazilians in their environment (Personal Note: I have seen this first hand in the Physics Department of UFMG, it is not good to fail. But in my opinion, MIT's approach to using failure as a learning experience seems more beneficial to the accumulation of knowledge).
'Lots of countries are beginning to reform their institutions to be similar to U.S. institutions in order to encourage entrepreneurship and innovative thinking. Role models help change the behavior, normally attributed to culture, to be more receptive to failure and the idea that I can do it too!' Richard Locke
'In the UK, universities are given funds in order to help support the birth of new companies. Some were very disillusioned believing that technology transfer could support their university.' Lita Nelsen
4:00 PM- Being an Entrepreneur in Brazil: Opportunities and Challenges
Richard Locke, Head of Political Science Department, Co-Director MIT- Brazil Program
Leila Velez, Founder and CEO, Instituto Beleza Natural
Gustavo Caetano, Founder and CEO, SambaTech
Mario Chady, Founder and CEO, Spoleto
Locke: Many people distinguish between 'need-based' entrepreneurship and 'opportunity-based' entrepreneurship. However, in Brazil, this is not the case.
Spoleto:
I always dreamed of having my own business and my own company.
Guilhermina Cafe (1992)
- First restaurant opened in Fashion Neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro-Leblon.
- High Volume Operation
- Full Service Restaurant
- 3 Restaurants in Rio de Janeiro
- Trendy spot w/ 6 different food concepts (all owned by us)
- Located @ Ipanema, Rio de Janeiro
- Best sales per m^2
Spoleto: http://www.spoleto.com.br/- Italian Cuisine
- First store was a franchise unit opened in Feb. 7, 1999--> Huge Success
- Now a very successful franchise with stores in N. America, Europe, etc.
- 292 Stores
- 264 Brazil
- 26 Mexico
- 2 Spain
- Domino's Pizza: 39 Stores in Brazil (purchased when facing bankruptcy in 2005)
- Koni (Japanese Finger Food Restaurant)- 33 stores (32 in Brazil, 1 in Portugal)
- Own everything from Distribution to Production, however everything is shared including profits.
- Revenue R$300 million
Beleza Natural: http://www.belezanatural.com.br/index2.html
Leila Velez
Beauty Institutes and a Cosmetics Factory specializing in curly hair treatments. Created the hair treatment which is a sort of a super relaxer, after 10 years of trial and error (and using my income from flipping burgers as McDonalds) we were able to streamline and manufacture the product.
70% of our employees are ex-customers and therefore they understand the curly hair structure and the difficulties. We treat 70,000 women a month with Afro-Hair. Brazil is a curly hair world with the majority of women having a loose to tight curly hair structure creating a market with millions of potential customers.
Factory produces products which help clients maintain their up-dos after their 'Cinderella' moments in the salon. To tell you about how difficult it is to do business in Brazil. We were called to a meeting with Salon owners. We were under the impression that we would be complemented on our services. Instead we were told that our business model and practices followed labor laws and were inciting rebellion from their employees who wanted to paid properly as well.
1 Institute
130 Schools
...
SambaTech: http://www.sambatech.com/
Gustavo Caetano
Samba's History:
- Mobiles without games in Brazil--> Idea--> Distribute Mobile Games--> Opportunity & Angel Investors= New Company
- Samba was born in 2004.
- Came to Belo Horizonte in order to spend less money on this business (Personal Note: Good Idea).
- Initially we were just resellers. After making money, we had to make the decision of whether to buy a BMW or reinvest. We decided to reinvest and launch our own platform for Live Streaming (Liquid). This would require us to hire several programmers, since my background is in Marketing. Now we distribute over 100 million videos and stream all live content from Brazilian News Organizations.
- In 2008, we started looking for a Venture Capitalist in Brazil but found one in DF J FIR Capital for $3 million.
- Then starting in 2009, we started growing 200% thanks to the grant which allowed us to increase our scale as well.
- I was selected as the 2009 Brazilian CEO of the Year and in 2010 we won the US Red Herring Prize becoming the first Brazilian Firm to do so.
- We are also a parter of MIT in the 'G-Lab Innovation and Entrepreneurship' program.
Q &A Panel:
1.) Being a Brazilian company, could you talk about what has been the response about you expanding abroad?
Chady: I solely believe in my concept. How it serves people. I believe it is a global concept. If you believe in your company and believe in your team, then go there. You cannot think that everything that you have done in your place can be done equal and in the same time be a huge success. Our experience in international markets tells us it does not depend on the place or the people, but the people on the other side have to care about the business and are willing to invest in the business in order to achieve the mission.
Velez: I see the light in people's eye who would love to have the solution for their own. I visit fairs and companies all over the world and it is very common to meet investors who want to bring this concept in the United States and around the world. I believe that this is in the future but not now because we have not used the opportunity available in Brazil.
2.) In Brazil, you have the emerging Class C & D which are now able to afford goods and services, how are businesses approaching this market?
Velez: We came from these classes. Therefore, we understand their needs. They want something cheap and the quality was not important. But what we want to do is give them something that we wanted for ourselves. High quality products that satisfy our wants & needs at a price point we can afford. The market is used to providing for Class A & B and now the market must adapt.
3.) How have MIT Graduate Students helped your businesses?
Velez: We were debating between franchising or self own schools and stores. We had two G-Lab students who helped us to decide which format was best.
Caetano: Some of the G-Lab students are on our Board of Advisors and they help us with our strategy for Latin America.
Chady: At first our employees were scared of MIT students, however, they soon realized they were equal partners and ideas were able to start flowing.
5:30 PM- Closing Remarks
L. Rafael Reif, MIT Provost
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